A very interesting end to the week with a rally in futures that continued on open, but with the second half of the day stuck at the previously mentioned level of 25800- the weekly bullish reversal.
2 ways to look at this, for the bullish case its a bounce off support and consolidation before a grind higher. For the bear case its a backtest of the 25800 level before a rejection next week.
The circled area shows the last time we came up against a weekly reversal and I highlight to show how important and stubborn these levels are. If price cannot break it, it will reverse back down to test the lower reversal which now sits at 25120. What can't go up must go down, and vice versa.
The weekly pivots are very compressed next week with price opening a whisker above the weekly and daily pivot, giving a neutral immediate bias. The fact they are so close means choppy action should dominate but when a break does finally come, it should be decisive.
My bias is still to the short side but I will flip bullish as soon as the reversal and pivots break. As I quoted last week- don't predict price, react to it.
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Futures are above 25800 and rising. Flipping long, entered at the backtest of the DP at 25848
Looks like another super bullish Monday coming up. I wonder whether Dow could get to 26000 and Sand P go to 2890 before it pivots. Trendline intersects R3 at 2889. Gonna have to cover shorts.
chrisatom
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@DaddySawbucks, agreed, Dow is the lagging index at the moment as the others have hit ATH, so has plenty of room to catch up but still remain in the bigger picture.
DaddySawbucks
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@chrisatom, I'm afraid it's breaking up. Gonna get killed forced to cover. Good luck.
DaddySawbucks
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Thanks for the detailed perspective- I'm also bearish but anxiously watching to see if the bulls can power higher. I'm afraid I shorted too early, lol. Good luck!
DaddySawbucks
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Also flipped long and covered shorts, made out okay with damage control. Gapping up 10... OW. Note to self: close out Fridays, DOH! I think it could get to 26268 US 30 and trendline test with Demark R1 on Sand P at 2907.
DaddySawbucks
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I closed out my vertical spreads still up for the year but I got hurt badly. Gone long it's a breakout. Writing vertical put spreads expire today... hope it won't break now!