US 30 Wave 5 Possible Pathway
After a shallow brief wave 4 now in progress expect higher again for a week or ten days.
Wave could carry Dow back to Jan high or perhaps a bit shy. Should get within 2 percent.
By early to mid-September we could see Dow reach a new alltime high, although it has lagged Sand P and Nasdaq is a real bubble.
Market was forming a smallish wave 4 when the Donald dropped his tweetbomb Thursday, yay for the Donster. Thanks buddy!
I shorted puts literally ten minutes before the tweet, ZOMG! Nonetheless, it is a shallow wave 4, as wave 2 was pretty hard and deeper grind. Final wave is a 5th of 5th, so expect more intense bullish greed. Chart may not be scaled as I notice 5th wave projection appears a little tall, as wave 3 is never the shortest. We will see. I drew the Gartley to peak on Standard R2 Pivot, maybe that's too high, who knows?!
As I write this post, futures already shaping up to turn bullish, Nas in the green again. In another post I discussed why Dow is lagging- it has to do with the index calculus.
Sand P index accounts for shares outstanding and market cap is periodically adjusted. Dow is calculated based on shares outstanding, so as corporate repurchases decrease shares in market, price and earnings are inflated but multiplier is diminshed as #shares is less. 19th century math, go figure!
So maybe US 30 will not get to 26616 again, as it has shrunk significantly (almost 6% after buybacks this year). Fibo for the Gartley is ~26268, we will see.
As the rally rolls into final phase RUT will reach into 1740+ zone maybe up to 1750+; we saw 1740 this week briefly before the Great Tweet.
This is a breakout pattern from the bear flag and it is parabolic in the other indexes; although Grand Dame Dow has lagged.
Rut should falter before the other indexes. Nas is a bubble and when it pops will deflate with shocking speed, flight to quality may prop up the Dow briefly.
The decline will likely be a full zigzag back to the neighborhood of strong support at 23530. Might not break that far down, depends on sentiment and fear.
A flat correction results in the final leg reaching comparable level to the primary wave, which shed 3300 points off Dow in Feb. It will be a roller coaster.
As always this is humorous speculative guesswork and in no way constitutes any kind of investment advice- gamble on stocks at your own risk, good luck!
Wave could carry Dow back to Jan high or perhaps a bit shy. Should get within 2 percent.
By early to mid-September we could see Dow reach a new alltime high, although it has lagged Sand P and Nasdaq is a real bubble.
Market was forming a smallish wave 4 when the Donald dropped his tweetbomb Thursday, yay for the Donster. Thanks buddy!
I shorted puts literally ten minutes before the tweet, ZOMG! Nonetheless, it is a shallow wave 4, as wave 2 was pretty hard and deeper grind. Final wave is a 5th of 5th, so expect more intense bullish greed. Chart may not be scaled as I notice 5th wave projection appears a little tall, as wave 3 is never the shortest. We will see. I drew the Gartley to peak on Standard R2 Pivot, maybe that's too high, who knows?!
As I write this post, futures already shaping up to turn bullish, Nas in the green again. In another post I discussed why Dow is lagging- it has to do with the index calculus.
Sand P index accounts for shares outstanding and market cap is periodically adjusted. Dow is calculated based on shares outstanding, so as corporate repurchases decrease shares in market, price and earnings are inflated but multiplier is diminshed as #shares is less. 19th century math, go figure!
So maybe US 30 will not get to 26616 again, as it has shrunk significantly (almost 6% after buybacks this year). Fibo for the Gartley is ~26268, we will see.
As the rally rolls into final phase RUT will reach into 1740+ zone maybe up to 1750+; we saw 1740 this week briefly before the Great Tweet.
This is a breakout pattern from the bear flag and it is parabolic in the other indexes; although Grand Dame Dow has lagged.
Rut should falter before the other indexes. Nas is a bubble and when it pops will deflate with shocking speed, flight to quality may prop up the Dow briefly.
The decline will likely be a full zigzag back to the neighborhood of strong support at 23530. Might not break that far down, depends on sentiment and fear.
A flat correction results in the final leg reaching comparable level to the primary wave, which shed 3300 points off Dow in Feb. It will be a roller coaster.
As always this is humorous speculative guesswork and in no way constitutes any kind of investment advice- gamble on stocks at your own risk, good luck!
Trade closed: stop reached:
Wave 4 has overlapped wave 1 today and violated EW rules, so this model is invalid. I'm afraid we are not in a fourth going on fifth wave but what appears to be an ABC or WXY, and A/W is getting pretty ugly. If so, the B/X reactionary wave could be vigorous, might retest highs. EW analysis will break down in highly volatile, emotionally charged markets- highly unpredictable, extremely risky. Safest bet now to take no trades until this thing declares itself. Preserve your trading capital!
Order cancelled:
My US 30 Bearish Gartley idea is still active, I think that's on course on glideslope. This idea was invalidated when the "4th wave" broke below "1st wave." Sorry for confusing!
