Guys, I have finally stumbled onto a methodology that can chart Wyckoff events in great detail... And it was in front of me this entire time, I was just looking at it wrong.
Unfortunately, it seems that ALL of the world's stock markets are roughly in the same type of distributive environment where we will see an ASTRONMICALLY huge fall. The DJI is set up to go down to around 14000 before we have a dead cat bounce.
No matter what the fed does, this will come about.
You are literally looking at the highest our stock markets will be for a VERY long time to come. I believe that we will reach the top of the markets possibly as short as the next 1-2 weeks, but could take up to a month. After that time, we will experience enormous drops in the markets, we will drop by around 50% at least.
The risk is definitely present for this pandemic to cause a reset of the major trend.
Your estimates line up with my posting from May where I spotted a 50% potential fall (tradingview.com/chart/SPX500/Z6zu331j-Long-term-trend-many-crisis-but-only-a-few-that-reset/). Interesting that your Wyckoff methodology narrows down potential timing.
The obvious trigger in that timeframe is a 'sell the news' on the election.
If that coincides with more lock-downs and/or failed stimulus then it might tip the balance.
(I am a bit confused as to how you're using Bitcoin/USD on the lower chart to determine Wyckoff timing for the Dow?)
Zulu_Kilo
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@canuk101, Just FYI the bitcoin chart on the bottom is just where I chose to draw out the model for how the Wyckoff theory works. Has nothing to do with BTC or anything, just happens to be the chart I chose to draw it.
The timing is more price related than it is anything else. If it reaches the certain threshold, then technically we are in that specific phase.
This is why money supply is being expanded so rapidly, to buffer the market from rapid decline.
Everyone from individuals to companies, to local, state and federal government have money in the market in some form.
Expected growth from the market is used to plan future spending and balance budgets.
Economy leans too much on "expected returns" and stability of the market and Fed understands this and that is why they are willing to do anything to prevent rapid decline.
We must not underestimate their ability to significantly buffer this decline with inflation or outright inflate the market out of this decline.
wordsforthewise
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what do you think will happen with BTC? Down with stocks first then rocket? Or just down?
Paul-adam
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Keep posted.
UnknownUnicorn8215487
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Hectic times...
Zulu_Kilo
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@C622, It will be bad, no matter which way we look at it and no matter how much money they print... The only thing that it will do is prolong the inevitable.
The COVID selloff, all it did was shorten the timeframe because the dip was super quick... Something that may have taken a year or so, took only a month... But it was all the same, nevertheless.
Your estimates line up with my posting from May where I spotted a 50% potential fall (tradingview.com/chart/SPX500/Z6zu331j-Long-term-trend-many-crisis-but-only-a-few-that-reset/).
Interesting that your Wyckoff methodology narrows down potential timing.
The obvious trigger in that timeframe is a 'sell the news' on the election.
If that coincides with more lock-downs and/or failed stimulus then it might tip the balance.
(I am a bit confused as to how you're using Bitcoin/USD on the lower chart to determine Wyckoff timing for the Dow?)