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DJI Bear Market Path to Lower Low: WXYXZ EW Pattern Repeats

TVC:DJI   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Chart says most all. Expect lower low around 17K in late May or early June.
In 2008 and again in the two zig-zags of 2018, we saw the Elliott complex wave WXYXZ recur.

W is pretty clearly carved out, lol. X1 is nearly completed, or at completion. Short entry for Y.
Y has been a higher low, followed by a lower high at X2, giving the 'hunchbacked M' pattern which is a Bearish butterflly or bat and precedes the final impulse to the bottom.

A strong rally typically ensures; however, this may STILL NOT BE THE BOTTOM!

In 2008 after the WXYXZ pattern completed, a final bottom carved out months later.
Whether this happens again depends on the length and severity of Coronaviral economic impact .
Comment: We are here at the 0.50...!
Trade active: Adding SPXS at this Fibo. Ofc it could go to the 0.62 at 25200, shorts getting squeezed now. Prices are high again... irrational extremes, panic to sell, panic to buy back in. Soon panic to sell again IMO.
Comment: We are in Phase Two of a Bear Market. This is a nice discussion, mentions 'W' shape recovery, which we've seen so many times:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the...
Comment: C = A now at this price. Full moon last night. Your guess good as mine; I'm 30% short.
Comment: QQQ is up a mere 0.21c on 4/9/20. Virtually unchanged; it hit a wall at 200.
Trade active: Intraday on 4/9/20 we had four peaks turn back from the 0.50 Fibo. Hammered...

Gann: Failure on fourth rally spells rejection. Let's see... notice QQQ is flat; divergent.
Comment: Yeah we got REJECTION IMO... wow, the Bears are Back!
Comment: Double topping at the 0.50 Fibo on 4/17. Unwarranted enthusiasm over unproven antiviral therapies. Gonna sell again soon IMO.
Comment: Skinny on Remdesivir; it's not statistically more effective than placebo:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-an...
Trade active: Brief update; follow on my most current SPX post pls:

Some variation in the actual path of the rally from chart projection, it behaves like a B wave, struggling gains in choppy trade. It's not an impulsive 5-wave, although many authors have tried to print an impulse here; it formed a 3-3-3 WXYXZ double combo wave, topping at the 0.618 Fibo near 2937 on 4/29.

Expect real volatility to return soon; NB: UVXY futures are persistently ^^^ and trades above $40, VIX holds above $30. Another spike incoming IMO.
Comment: Bought 3k shares of SPXS at $10 with index at 2932, within 5 pips of the Fibo. By some measures 2934 is the 0.618 retracement from 23 March, we have arrived IMO.

Comments

25200 Fib 0,618
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@aox8zs, maybe
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@aox8zs, maybe not
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@aox8zs, agree, depend on how to make on next Monday
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I'm banking on liquidity bottleneck . This is a monumental task to get the money out in a fluid flow with minimal disruptions over the next couple / few weeks , I don't see it , not even close , this was happily slapped together with the best of intentions , at the very least confusion will reign . My FA going forward , probably play into your May / June scenario , people won' t stand for it .
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@Peterson, Can't second guess the market reaction to news, just trade the signals it gives. Today we got a Shooting Star, again.
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You’re always ahead of others. I have the same observation, but with the amount of liquidity being pumped into the markets, things may turn out to be different this time. Let’s hope for the best...
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@lkdahleh, I get some good ideas, I had done well to trade on them, LOL. Feels like we're darned close to ending of this rally.
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