Overall on US markets, I am skeptical but open to bullish sentiment. The question is, how do we get past record highs? First though, how do we even get past this DJI resistance? The answer to both could be trade war detente. Okay, but what happens if we have a detente, which won't happen at least until June as reported yesterday, and there's no rally? We could go sideways for two months and see volatility hit record lows without the uptrend that saw record low volatility with daily gains. Short-term though, DJI looks like its ready to retreat from this resistance. Let's not be surprised if that happens. But also, let's also not be surprised if we get past it on trade war detente news and not a resolution. For more of my ideas with more words and charts, please check out my content at anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
Nothing will change for trade. The Americans are not traveling to China because things are going great, when we are supposed to be running the table. Why travel to China, the supposed weak guy in all of this? Doesn't make sense. I bet China is not cooperating, things are getting worse, and the Americans are moving in to try to keep talks going. China is far more likely to simply stall and wait it out, until the Dems take things over again. Why wouldn't they? Their markets are total manipulations, the Government controls everything, and there is nothing we can do to stop them from propping up their own markets, both trade wise, and in stocks, for a couple short years.
As for the Fed, this goes sort of to my previous point: What the HELL would compel the Fed to go from 2 to none? It's not the stock market. It is some very bad data that either they are seeing or projecting that the broader public has not, or which most certainly has not even begun to be priced into the market. Duh. I suspect, however, that over the next very immediate future, it will start to be priced in. You said it best: What will continue to drive the market higher? I just don't see it, and that's hugely, or as Trump would say, YUGELY, amplified by whatever the hell is going on that would cause the Fed to have such a DRAMATIC capitulation. No one questioned it today. Just wait until they do. I suspect that will be tomorrow, and through the end of this week.
Something big is about to happen. I usually avoid making big statements about big things about to happen, but come on. As for SPX, we have what is perhaps the greatest head and shoulders pattern in history taking shape - and I am of the belief that the right shoulder has taken shape this week. The charts are certainly showing that things are likely to move lower.
But there is something big going on globally, the Fed just caught up to it, to their credit, but their attempt, almost pathetic to be honest, to seem calm and calculating, like there dramatic change is somehow normal, a complete 180, is going to prove to be what all financial news is talking about in the near future. Since when would such an announcement not cause the DOW to run 500 points, or SPX 80+ points? Instead, it made back some losses, went positive, and then ended up where it was in the red pre-FOMC. Something is amiss, and something big is about to happen. Buy 1+ month SPY puts!
As for the Fed, this goes sort of to my previous point: What the HELL would compel the Fed to go from 2 to none? It's not the stock market. It is some very bad data that either they are seeing or projecting that the broader public has not, or which most certainly has not even begun to be priced into the market. Duh. I suspect, however, that over the next very immediate future, it will start to be priced in. You said it best: What will continue to drive the market higher? I just don't see it, and that's hugely, or as Trump would say, YUGELY, amplified by whatever the hell is going on that would cause the Fed to have such a DRAMATIC capitulation. No one questioned it today. Just wait until they do. I suspect that will be tomorrow, and through the end of this week.
Something big is about to happen. I usually avoid making big statements about big things about to happen, but come on. As for SPX, we have what is perhaps the greatest head and shoulders pattern in history taking shape - and I am of the belief that the right shoulder has taken shape this week. The charts are certainly showing that things are likely to move lower.
But there is something big going on globally, the Fed just caught up to it, to their credit, but their attempt, almost pathetic to be honest, to seem calm and calculating, like there dramatic change is somehow normal, a complete 180, is going to prove to be what all financial news is talking about in the near future. Since when would such an announcement not cause the DOW to run 500 points, or SPX 80+ points? Instead, it made back some losses, went positive, and then ended up where it was in the red pre-FOMC. Something is amiss, and something big is about to happen. Buy 1+ month SPY puts!