If you are wondering what you should be doing in terms of trend following the equity indices these days, I promise you are not alone. This multi-month range-bound "bull market rally" since December has turned into a money-printing extravaganza for everyone who is not in the business of making money in markets. The disequilibrium between "normal expectations" of growth and sustained easing and the "new normal" parabolic crypto-gimme has created a very difficult trading environment for those who earn the proper way.
Finally, though, we may have come thru to the end of the tunnel on this rally with a tricky terminal pattern forming on the hourly/daily of all the major US equity indices (and Bitcoin, obviously). This one is pretty hard to spot and if you aren't looking for it, the past three weeks of price action seems completely bizarre and trendless. It pretty much is - since it is a triangle after all.
The only saving grace about this triangle is that, if it is the one I am thinking of, it is for sure a terminal pattern, (1), and, (2), there is a very nice trade setup incoming tomorrow with a very high probability of success and several points of impulsive price action to boot.
Rejoice if this ends up looking even close to what happens tomorrow because the top is in.
Here's one other count on the Dow that factors in the completion of a higher degree triangle as well. Just think the D and E waves are too small not to consider something like this possiblity (only difference is longer wait til final breakout downward, even though the "D" leg down presented below will feel all the same:
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Latest progress as per my best guess:
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Best Daily Candle Case Scenario For Shortsticks:
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I think rugpull is upon us.. should be arriving within the hour. If not, might need to revise.
Hi Perma,
Thank you for your expectations, it looks very good. my question regarding ypur last update chart, th eline (E) will goes down till the bottom support (33100 ?) and goes up to the resistance (33200?),, I am right with the number? and this should be intraday movement or it should close below (33200) to confirm this patter to initiate the 33200 as a resistance instead of support?. many Thanks.
Best wishes,
Ali
UnknownUnicorn5511258
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@alijx, sure thing - the truth is I have no idea whether it happens pre or post open today. The move down right now is implying crash-level strength (dow futures, that is), so the tiny pullback wave 2 may be much smaller than that depicted above.
My best thought is to get into a short position for next week at whatever price you can. It will likely move too fast to get in good position without this brief pause, so would take advantage if the opportunity arises.
Hope this is helful.
-Pig
John_8-58
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This time might be the good one ;). I'll keep some equity expositions to S&P/TSX. Divested from US . Dow Jones will outperform NQ and ES most likely. Metals and Oils will rule over the world of pagans. Plat Copper Silver is their new god for the years to come
UnknownUnicorn5511258
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@John_8-58, Agreed with all points; happy to report my pagan status (should I change my name to Pagan_Pig ??).
Anyway, I'd add one thing to your list - iron ore is likely to take over the base metal space, while Platinum is about to run the precious space. Asian (China, mostly) demand for iron is set to fly regardless of what the global economy looks like in a month, so am figuring out how best to enter long.
Laurent10
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At bloody long last - eventually somebody has the balls and courage to say what it is - been reading here for many years and it seems EVERYONE who posts a chart etc knows exactly what happened, what's happening and whats gonna happen.....as my fellow trader says, "if you're wondering what you should be doing" because I haven't a clue about these markets. They are NOT normal, nothing (imo) is normal, and it hasn't been for a while......you can look at the 50/60/100 charts out there, and it will not go according to plan.
Thanks for a refreshing look at the markets, for what it is. If people think this is 'normal' then they lying to themselves (and everybody else who believes them)
I FULLY CONCUR with your views.
Happy trading
UnknownUnicorn5511258
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@Laurent10, You are welcome - today and rest of week (minimum) should be satisfying. Let's see if we can catch a limit down this week to really delineate the new market.
DaddySawbucks
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Thinking same; this looks so much like June 2020 and March 01 21; it held up for 8 days in june, that gave a double bottom
Thank you for your expectations, it looks very good. my question regarding ypur last update chart, th eline (E) will goes down till the bottom support (33100 ?) and goes up to the resistance (33200?),, I am right with the number? and this should be intraday movement or it should close below (33200) to confirm this patter to initiate the 33200 as a resistance instead of support?. many Thanks.
Best wishes,
Ali