Today, We analyzed one of the most important indices in US market. I decided to record a video since I thought that it may be difficult to show what I am thinking in writing. In fact, I wish to transfer my idea better by this video.
In this video, We investigate Worst, Moderate and Best case Scenarios. We analyzed the index from 1932 to 202022 and discussed different possible scenarios. We can never predict the future without looking to the past.
As I told in video, what I currently suppose to be the most likely scenario is the moderate one, but we have to keep in mind that other scenarios even bullish one is possible therefor, we have to be open-minded and be ready for all possibilities.
Good Luck every body.
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May be it is now good to review what is explained in this video idea. Hope to be helpful.
Some thoughts: First, great analysis. You have some interesting findings, especially when you overlay the Fibonacci levels. For me, the greatest challenge I have found in using Elliot Wave Theory is that it's not scientific and that from a statistical perspective it succumbs to overfitting and therefore lacks predictive value. Nonetheless, if enough people operate on the same Elliott Wave findings, the price may conform to those findings. With that said, I've noticed that the DJIA has been bearish on the yearly timeframes:
@spy_master, But keep in mind this is relative, and does not predict actual price movement. So DJIA may fall, but just less than SPX.
SpyMasterTrades
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@spy_master, This is further confirmed by QQQ looking to underperform SPY over the long term.
SpyMasterTrades
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@spy_master, In light of this a savvy investor might look to shift capital from growth and tech into value or more specifically Dow components over the long term. However, we first need the QQQ/SPY outperformance trend to actually break, which hasn't happened yet, but likely will if inflation spirals even more.
SpyMasterTrades
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@spy_master, In the near to intermediate term, tech looks ready to try to rebound as inflation worries cool. Indeed it completed its double top and needs to at least retest the neckline.
@SaeedSajedi, Yes, I did see this when Trading View posted it as an Editor's Pick. I agree pretty much entirely with your analysis. In fact, here's a convincing chart that further suggests that the long-term trend for energy is up: