It has become very clear to me that this is the most correct count. This count has perfect fib hits if we use log scale fib retracements and excellent alternation between waves 2 and 4, wave 2 is a zigzag and 4 is a flat. We are currently in wave b of 4 of a grand super cycle. After countless revisions and looking at alternatives this is the best count. The waves from 2009 till now are not impulsive but are corrective. At minimum we will retrace back to 08 lows but we will head lower than that, how much lower is anyone's guess. After we complete the 4th wave we will have one last 5th wave that will be the top of a grand supercycle. The 5th wave will be marked by hyperinflation imo, and we could see DOW 100000, at that point cash will be trash. The current period we are in is analogous to late 1920s.
Interesting idea, but IMO I respectfully submit that perhaps your 'ABC' isn't. The long grind from 2000 - 2009 was in fact a giant zig-zag correction, which is not well evident on this log scale.
IMO the supercycle wave 3 ended in 1965 and was followed by a long grinding 4th wave in expanded flat correction through the 1970s; the Fifth wave ran from 1982 - 2000, an 18-year massive expansion in which buying stocks was rewarded for boomers and pension plans. The bump in 1987 was just a blip on the radar in a retrospectometer! Thereafter an ABC from 2000-2009 completed a supercycle correction. IMO we're in the end phase of a supercycle wave 1 of the next century bull run, which is just getting started. However, bulls beware; Wave 2 might return the index to 2015 support around 16800 by 2024; Wave 3 should last most of our lifetime thereafter, and I agree could indeed carry index to >100K by 2044.
It is not the absolute value of the index price that drives it; but the PE. When PE >30 there will be a selloff. Watch that PE; it's around 24 for Sand P atm. IMO this wave will end in a parabolic upside explosion in 2020.
PE of 30 for Sand P is ~3750... there might be another 25% left to go, IF ERs support that price!
Just my 2c; very nice idea; tyvm for posting! Fascinating supercycle theory... as long as business continues to increase and grow, share prices can expand indefinitely.
IMO the supercycle wave 3 ended in 1965 and was followed by a long grinding 4th wave in expanded flat correction through the 1970s; the Fifth wave ran from 1982 - 2000, an 18-year massive expansion in which buying stocks was rewarded for boomers and pension plans. The bump in 1987 was just a blip on the radar in a retrospectometer! Thereafter an ABC from 2000-2009 completed a supercycle correction. IMO we're in the end phase of a supercycle wave 1 of the next century bull run, which is just getting started. However, bulls beware; Wave 2 might return the index to 2015 support around 16800 by 2024; Wave 3 should last most of our lifetime thereafter, and I agree could indeed carry index to >100K by 2044.
It is not the absolute value of the index price that drives it; but the PE. When PE >30 there will be a selloff. Watch that PE; it's around 24 for Sand P atm. IMO this wave will end in a parabolic upside explosion in 2020.
PE of 30 for Sand P is ~3750... there might be another 25% left to go, IF ERs support that price!
Just my 2c; very nice idea; tyvm for posting! Fascinating supercycle theory... as long as business continues to increase and grow, share prices can expand indefinitely.