Historical counts and target for CYCLE wave 5 as shown in the chart.
There is a high probability, that the DOW has finished this CYCLE wave 5 (red)! During the last 30 years, the possible historical calculated target for this wave has always been e.g. 1,618 of wave 3 = 26428,07 (as an "Extension5"-pattern). January 26th's CLOSE at 26616,71 (=1,621) has been the highest HIGH, before the market turned. Since then, DOW is in some sort of sidewards reaction, which will probably go on for a while...
This is, why I don't see any new highs for the very near future.
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Since then, as predicted, there has not been much movement to the upside! Two similar Scenarios are possible for the near future:
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Scenario I: The peak of 01-02-2019 has a "SuperCycle" III (blue) count and right now, we are in a terminal "Cycle" wave E (brown), which also has a ABC corrective pattern. The TP for this Scenario would be the area of 20000 and below.
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Scenario II: The second peak of 04-10-2018 has the "SuperCycle" III (blue) count and right now, we are in a terminal "Cycle" wave C (brown), which also has a 12345 impulse pattern. The TP for this Scenario II would be the area of 19300 (conservative guess).
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Additinal Comment 1: Although the results of both Scenarios only differ in a range of 1000 to 2000 points, the difference would be either a ABC corrective pattern with its final tp in January 2020 OR a 12345 impulse pattern with its final tp in November 2019!
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For Scenario 1 a correct prediction is not possible yet!
Scenario 2: Assuming, that Friday's low at 25710,9 has been the LOW of the first wave 1 of a final 12345-leg, shown in the chart below, the small wave 2 correction to the upside could stop at 266xx (0,618) before the fall continues...
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Unchanged view of things. Next week will decide...
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Overview of possible targets for this wave 2 correction on 30min
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Standard coorection is 0,618 (26554)of the preceeding impuls wave 1. This is measured from this red wave 1. A 0,500 correction might also be possible (tp 26328).
The other tps are measured from wave a (blue) 1,000 (26405) and 0,618 (26184) respectively. NOTE: The standard correction of a ABC pattern is 0,618, But sometimes this wave stops at 0,500. This is , why I am exremely careful at the moment! Wish you have good trades! Cheers Wolf
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"Extended V-Bottom"?
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SHS
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Vircles are Fib Targets. The double circeld one is the TP from pattern studies.
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*Circles
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The upper chart is unrealistic! One day later: On the actual chart below, I show tandard tps. Question is, if DOW will break the SL of the wedge wedge.
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One week later
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Detailed view (5min scale)
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My update is overdue! After having expexted a move to the downside to 22500 overall, the market bounced. This has been a complete reversal, which strongly suggests, DJI is in a ABCDE correction!
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To complete this ABCDE pattern, this upper blue resistance line must be broken and the top resistance of the red wedge remains valid! Therefore. I expect a new ATH at roundabout 28000!
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Important note: Within an ABCDE-pattern, every wave consists of an ABC pattern! This is, why I expect a strong retracement as soon as DJI has reached the upper blue line (resistance) for a wave "b" (dark red). Once wave "b" is complete, there will be a last bounce to 28000 (wave c) in order to complete the whole ABCDE-pattern.
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Sorry, forget (dark red)! Wave "e" consist of an ABC-pattern. "a" of this wave stops at the blue line, "b" stops at 0,618 of wave "a" and teminal wave "c" bounces to 28000.
I share your elliottist calculation. On the Dax I think the top LT is also realized. We are entering a bearish LT market.
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@PHILOOS, thanks! Let's see what the market will show the coming 2 weeks! DAX, CAC40 and UKX will probably anticipate the direction. Thx again and good luck!
I share your elliottist calculation. On the Dax I think the top LT is also realized. We are entering a bearish LT market.