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Nemo_Confidat
Mar 16, 2021 1:38 PM

DJIA / Gold Ratio - SHORT; SELL it "forever"!! Short

DJI/GOLDDJ

Description

Well, at least for a generation - or two.

The long term Dow Jones Industrial Average:


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... and what is still (continues to be) the best index-based, passive trade out there;


SHORT the DJIA/Nikkei225 spread.

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DJIA comparisons with other, worldwide indexes;

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On a Foot Note;

You know you’re in a bubble

- When funding a 36-year stream of expected inflation-adjusted spending requires over 38 years of money up-front;

- When the median price/revenue ratio of S&P 500 components exceeds 3.3;

- When every single decile of S&P 500 components is at record valuation extremes; hussmanfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/comment/mc210315n.png

- When the amount of leverage in the system (U.S. equity markets) is now easily the highest in history, by any measure, not just in absolute terms! (relative to GDP, etc. Margin Debt/GDP = Margin Debt/Market Cap x Market Cap/GDP Showing insane over-valuation across the board!)

- In a world where speculators now value the stock of bitcoin at one-fifth the value of the entire U.S. monetary base;

- Where the current SPAC mania is identical to the South Sea Bubble in as much as: "Let them see not what they do!";

- and so on...
Comments
RockyXu
Any idea on how to predicting the timing of the bubble bursting? Fed intervention etc?
Nemo_Confidat
@RockyXu, This may give you some idea...;
EmptyEternity
Where do you see gold going from here target and timewise?
Nemo_Confidat
@EmptyEternity, It seems that $2800 oz is a foregone conclusion. This is also likely to be the slowest climb/cycle Gold will have ever experienced, given the present number of conflicting forces.
EmptyEternity
@IanSinclaire, looks like the dollar will push gold down before ATH, miners will bottom out end of summer..
Nemo_Confidat
@EmptyEternity, Quite possible. - Which why "Trade what you see, not what you think!" ;-)
Nemo_Confidat
EmptyEternity
@IanSinclaire, YES! I see just that, and after today's job's numbers - I think gold will get pounded for the next two weeks until there's a breather. Nice chart!
Nemo_Confidat
@EmptyEternity, 1) "Trade what you see, not what you think!"; 2) "10 minutes spent thinking about the economy is 10 minutes wasted, not doing market analysis."; Cheers
EmptyEternity
@IanSinclaire, your advice is bare of consideration for macro/fundamental analysis. Your fractals/patterns will fail you at the big turning points because charts don't predict the future, only relay the past...
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