Short term seasonal patterns are bullish in the last week of the year. Also the DJIA is near 20,000 giving additional bullish incentive.
Today 12/28/16 was very significant, in spite of the bullish factor the DJIA had a relatively large down day and triggered bearish cross overs in the daily Stochastic and MACD. Additionally the RSI which registered a bearish divergence at the 12/21/16 top has now broken below the level it was at on 11/18/16. Sometimes when this happens it can indicate where prices could move to. In this case DJIA 18820.
Given the strong bearish momentum signals it is now doubtful the DJIA will reach 20,000 either in the next few days or the next few weeks. Its possible the DJIA could get to 20,000 several months from now if the suspected early 2017 decline is moderate, say 5 to 10%.
So far the major SPX Fibonacci time cycle top made on 12/13/16 has held. See my post on this two weeks ago. The SPX 12/13/16 top also came at major Fibonacci price resistance. Also so far the DJIA Fibonacci time cycle top made on 12/21/16 Winter Solstice has held. See my post last week.
On 12/27/16 the Nasdaq made a new 2016 high unconfirmed by the SPX and DJIA.
For market sentiment - the Market Vane Bullish Consensus reading for stocks last week was 65% the week before it was 66%. These are the highest readings since mid - May 2015 of 65% which was when the SPX hit its 2015 high at 2134. Not exactly the best time to go long stocks.
There is more to analyzing markets then just price patterns. Market trade in 4 dimensions; Price, Time, Momentum, and Sentiment.
In the last week of 2016 all 4 dimensions for the US stock market are flashing sell signals.
Mark
Comments
The_Unwind
⋅
Mark,
Thank you for your overview of the "4 Dimension" Conditions of the stock market.
No analyst out there "SEE"S" the market the way you do, and that is why your work is so VALUABLE to the trading community at large.
The 12-14 lows made on the Dow 19748.67 and S+P 2248.84 on the day of the Fed meeting loom large as price support.
The Nasdaq 100 which on 12-27 broke out of a 240 minute price consolidation zone to the upside at the open,
making a new historic high of 4992.08 REVERSED COMPLETELY on 12-28,
confirming a bearish "false breakout" on the move below 4937.00 closing at 4926.29
Nasdaq 100 "Fang" stocks, Apple, Google,Amazon, Facebook are setting up potential Head and Shoulders patterns on Daily Charts.
NDX could act as a trigger to a much larger price decline in the overall stock market on a price break below 4884.00
Bears careful watching for year end, and the first week of 2017.
Thank you for your overview of the "4 Dimension" Conditions of the stock market.
No analyst out there "SEE"S" the market the way you do, and that is why your work is so VALUABLE to the trading community at large.
The 12-14 lows made on the Dow 19748.67 and S+P 2248.84 on the day of the Fed meeting loom large as price support.
The Nasdaq 100 which on 12-27 broke out of a 240 minute price consolidation zone to the upside at the open,
making a new historic high of 4992.08 REVERSED COMPLETELY on 12-28,
confirming a bearish "false breakout" on the move below 4937.00 closing at 4926.29
Nasdaq 100 "Fang" stocks, Apple, Google,Amazon, Facebook are setting up potential Head and Shoulders patterns on Daily Charts.
NDX could act as a trigger to a much larger price decline in the overall stock market on a price break below 4884.00
Bears careful watching for year end, and the first week of 2017.
The_Unwind