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Lorenz_Capital
Dec 13, 2018 8:31 PM

DJIA - Looking Shaky at the 2.618  Short

Dow Jones Industrial Average IndexDJ

Description

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the us stock market is more likely to undergo a serious correction, as apposed to an extended 2019-2020 continuation rally. Aside from the fundamentals, macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, which are also pointing to a global "risk off" environment, the TA alone shows that the 75 degree angle of this bull market is not sustainable. I am expecting a 20-30% correction to come within the next 2-3 years.

Time to start thinking defensive, and protecting that capital.
Comments
DaddySawbucks
Thanks for the post. Notably, protecting capital is #1 priority. Although it is possible to make a buck selling stock and call options short, or buying puts, usually these very tricky and expensive strategies will fail. You can lose money buying puts in ANY market, and shares sold short may be recalled and liquidated at any time, regardless of loss cost to seller, by the lending broker. And short selling calls can wipe out your account overnight. Think about what the exercise of 100 SPY calls at $270 would entail: you, the seller of said contracts being legally bound to deliver 10,000 shares of SPY for $2,700,000, should a sudden rally carry the index into the money while you are goofing off on the golf course or relaxing at the pool. Yet you can short them on 25% margin for a $2 spread, only $5000... at expiration,should your short calls close in the money but the long side of spread fall only near or even out of the money, you have full legal obligation to meet the demand on exercise. Loss is NOT limited to the $2 spread = $20,000. That spread will ruin you for three generations!
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