Prior to 2014 there have been 3 instances of the monthly RSI closing above 80 going back to 1988, Each of the three instances have lead to a return to the trend line noted below. In November of 2014, the DOW transports recorded the 4th instance of a monthly RSI close above 80 coming in at 86.
Recently the DOWT found support at previous resistance measured from the 1999 and 2008 tops. Should the DOWT go back below this support, I believe there is a high probability of retesting the long term trend line below. Depending on the timing, this would imply a long term target of 5500-6300 on DOWT.
This looks more like the 1995-1996 time frame especially given low oil prices. Note the similarity in the charts to that time.
SMP99
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From a price perspective I could see that. I suppose for the purpose of this chart I was focusing more on the impact to the index following a extreme price run up as measured by a monthly closing rsi reading above 80. And in that case the move up prior to 95/96 does not compare. Only 1989 comes close to what we just saw. After that extreme reading prices declined quite quickly.