Perma_Pig
Short

Probably Gonna Get Bashed, But It's Blow-Off City

NASDAQ:DKNG   DRAFTKINGS INC
Love the company, but be careful.

NASDAQ:DKNG Been warned.
Trade active: Always mistime the first entry, so that I force myself to follow. Also, the thought of missing the inevitable blow-off, is more gut-wrenching than a tiny lotto put position expiring away.

Honestly, could either drop to 30 here for a mild gain, or (hopefully) continue to defy the laws of decency, and fly to 42. That would make the 14 RSI so unbelievably great for next week, that a blow-off, and not a large pullback, will be set in stone, imo.

I will be building 1/2 my put position for next week if that's the case. If its a pullback, I will flip to the long side in a heartbeat at under 30 bones a pop.

-Pig
Trade active: Seems that there are other places to long now. Would exit.
Trade active: Solid day for longs. I am short at-the-money for hedging purposes.

If it blows off, great, my position is too small to care.

Still, I would be cautious longing over 45 this week.
Trade active: Think if the market pops, this get's crushed down. Logic: Same as above but market turning is a perfect smokescreen for a rug pull. If all the bullies enter now, their stops below 40 will get hit all at once.

Might just short this as a short, not a hedge.
Trade active: Couple things that could help a) bulls save time and money and b) bears save time and money.

1) Fact that my chart is about 3 dollars short but has a similar form means that there is still the (slight) possibility for a blow-off type of move down, but it will be much less severe than if there was no pullback prior to the market dump on Thursday. Good news for bulls, but only as far as you're less likely to puke while holding until you turn 50.

2) The one event that can still offer a "rug-pull" type of opportunity is if/when pro sports resume. If you think this hasn't been priced in, think otherwise. If you think that the price will soar the day that pro sports resume then that will be the reason for the rug pull.

Wish this thing would drop already so can get in long properly.

Comments

consolidation.MLB opens up back up to previous highs this thing is in perfect storm of perfection. nothing to do sports back on drink beer gamble wait for august NFl Drink beer Gamble Draft King approaches 50$ come Nov. In full swing all shorts that didn't know or Follow DEAC squeezed out.. cash Register ring i was buying at 11 can't lose you win when you buy at right price...
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@Cbnyc, Yes, you are more than good for the rest of the company's history, unless it lists in Hong Kong because America keeps nation-wide gambling illegal. My post was not meant for you, but will outline my reasoning for an incoming blow-off (not a ridiculous TSLA/TLRY blow-off) but just a fair and fast double-digit point loss in an hour.

So, sure, it's got another 5-10 bucks this week because the market is gushing. My point is, in the very near-term, the price is moving into dangerous territory and if it continues to diverge from MAs, it will do what stocks always do in manic spurts: go up a lot and come down a lot more. The reasons are three-fold, from my perspective:

- The RSI is unsustainable at current levels, across all timeframes (Day or smaller). Assuming price goes up tomorrow, RSI will continue to rise tomorrow and move into really unsustainable territory.
- Volume was twice the average 10-day moving today and it only increased 2%... that is most troubling, especially EOD.
- See any point in chart's history when it went parabolic and you'll find a sharp retracement every time.

Look, I like the company and have friends who work there. I'm bullish LT. But I also have much experience shorting mini-bubbles, since being Piggish allows for unbiased top and bottom picking. My entry is wrong often, so will give this 5-10 more dollars of room until my put position is complete.

Again, you're in at 11, wouldn't bother watching until it hits 100.

-Perma
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Cbnyc Perma_Pig
@Perma_Pig, I can see a pull back coming into this month Technically like you say but TO much News behind it all summer been in this since nov. built in player base from fantasy good perks from what i hear keep players engaged. sports betting is federally Legal so as Cash strapped states turn on this one by one more upside much better then pot which i have spec long and wheel trades in CGC has 5 more year before federally legal any how Good Luck Mate Trend stocks are Danger to Shorts and Longs.Throw the book out the window lately
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@Cbnyc, hear ya, can't argue because I like all those things, and will be a buyer using the profits made from the shorty-type play
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maxpowers67 Perma_Pig
@Perma_Pig,

Did not get one this one this week I think it will pull back next week and my buy some crazy cheep puts tomarrow if we can get the bots and j pow to stop inflating stocks and slowly release them at 250 pm
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@Cbnyc what do you see it pulling back to?
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Cbnyc franklynch1980
@franklynch1980, still showing some strength.. held on 40 ok if market stays up consolidation if market sells off back down to mid 30's
+1 Reply
@Cbnyc, @franklynch1980

21-EMA held it up and the market is looking green tomorrow. So either mid-30s on a steady retracement tomorrow is correct (long ideal), or another extension to 47/48 by the afternoon and then it gets fleeced (short's dream).

Say I'm short this right now. I know it's going to be tough to get more than 7-8 points from here and contract writers will almost definitely win. That's why I'm not short - yet.

If longs get manic and can't accept a retracement tomorrow and buy excessively with the broader trend to 50, I will short it before market close without batting an eye. Anything over 47 tomorrow and it's almost a zero-brainer. Every butt-hurt short from today is going to see this price action and try to get revenge from their third failure this week.

Point is hope for a nice easy consolidating retracement to 35. If not, it's prob best to exit by 45 or earlier.
+1 Reply
Cbnyc Perma_Pig
@Perma_Pig, baseball union makes a deal this will be over 50 in an instant like i said technicals don't hold up as well on trend stocks throw the rule book out the window everything you say makes since but doesn't matter i just wish i bought more kicking myself covid crap killed my liquid
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@Cbnyc, ya might be right sir. Honestly does not matter to me, and will long it if it gets manic. Then I will short it at a higher point. Being a pig makes trading so much easier.
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