Honestly, could either drop to 30 here for a mild gain, or (hopefully) continue to defy the laws of decency, and fly to 42. That would make the 14 RSI so unbelievably great for next week, that a blow-off, and not a large pullback, will be set in stone, imo.
I will be building 1/2 my put position for next week if that's the case. If its a pullback, I will flip to the long side in a heartbeat at under 30 bones a pop.
If it blows off, great, my position is too small to care.
Still, I would be cautious longing over 45 this week.
Might just short this as a short, not a hedge.
1) Fact that my chart is about 3 dollars short but has a similar form means that there is still the (slight) possibility for a blow-off type of move down, but it will be much less severe than if there was no pullback prior to the market dump on Thursday. Good news for bulls, but only as far as you're less likely to puke while holding until you turn 50.
2) The one event that can still offer a "rug-pull" type of opportunity is if/when pro sports resume. If you think this hasn't been priced in, think otherwise. If you think that the price will soar the day that pro sports resume then that will be the reason for the rug pull.
Wish this thing would drop already so can get in long properly.
So, sure, it's got another 5-10 bucks this week because the market is gushing. My point is, in the very near-term, the price is moving into dangerous territory and if it continues to diverge from MAs, it will do what stocks always do in manic spurts: go up a lot and come down a lot more. The reasons are three-fold, from my perspective:
- The RSI is unsustainable at current levels, across all timeframes (Day or smaller). Assuming price goes up tomorrow, RSI will continue to rise tomorrow and move into really unsustainable territory.
- Volume was twice the average 10-day moving today and it only increased 2%... that is most troubling, especially EOD.
- See any point in chart's history when it went parabolic and you'll find a sharp retracement every time.
Look, I like the company and have friends who work there. I'm bullish LT. But I also have much experience shorting mini-bubbles, since being Piggish allows for unbiased top and bottom picking. My entry is wrong often, so will give this 5-10 more dollars of room until my put position is complete.
Again, you're in at 11, wouldn't bother watching until it hits 100.
Did not get one this one this week I think it will pull back next week and my buy some crazy cheep puts tomarrow if we can get the bots and j pow to stop inflating stocks and slowly release them at 250 pm
21-EMA held it up and the market is looking green tomorrow. So either mid-30s on a steady retracement tomorrow is correct (long ideal), or another extension to 47/48 by the afternoon and then it gets fleeced (short's dream).
Say I'm short this right now. I know it's going to be tough to get more than 7-8 points from here and contract writers will almost definitely win. That's why I'm not short - yet.
If longs get manic and can't accept a retracement tomorrow and buy excessively with the broader trend to 50, I will short it before market close without batting an eye. Anything over 47 tomorrow and it's almost a zero-brainer. Every butt-hurt short from today is going to see this price action and try to get revenge from their third failure this week.
Point is hope for a nice easy consolidating retracement to 35. If not, it's prob best to exit by 45 or earlier.