Dogecoin (DOGEUSD) hit last week the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since the December 07 2020 1W candle. This is the trend-line that (excluding the March 2020 COVID crash), marked the bottom during the previous Bear Cycle.
This idea illustrates DOGE's long-term Cycles in order to get a better understanding of where we stand today. Last week's low on the 1W MA200 completed a -90% correction since the May 03 2021 1W candle All Time High. As you see the previous Cycle also formed its bottom on a -90% correction, while the 2014 Cycle did so after a -95% correction. Also the recent low completed 53 weeks (371 days) since the Cycle's High. The previous two were 57 weeks (399 days) and 67 (469 days) respectively.
That makes the current levels a solid buy for the long-term. However it is common for Dogecoin to consolidate and have a very long accumulation phase before having its aggressive parabolic rally that leads to a Cycle (blow-off) Top. The Accumulation Phases of the last two Cycles (from bottom to the start of the parabolic rally) were identical, 97 weeks (679 days) in 2019/2020 and 96 weeks (672 days) in 2015/2016.
I don't agree with all the arguments this time, but it's a very interesting point of view. I will keep this idea in mind during my trading. Thanks for the idea, mate)
The first mistake being made here is that you’re assuming that crypto is currently finishing a macro cycle. This time is clearly different, we are in the middle of a macro cycle that is purely in intermission. The next leg up across the markets will be much sooner than expected. secondly the doge drawdown is moving at a much faster rate, if you look at the current draw down from May 2021 till now and stretch it out you can see that it broadly aligns with the entirety of doges last macro cycle drawdown and 2020 consolidation. Thirdly it would be way too obvious to repeat the same thing three times in a row. The markets typically only repeat patterns twice before altering. If you even look at doge you can find on a more micro scale that it will repeat patterns twice before some exaggerative move immediately after. Food for thought
Zeke704
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@B_Musk, How do you see 2023 playing out for Doge? I know it's speculation but what do you think Is a realistic price target.
B_Musk
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With the current state of the market no price I would deem realistic would be deemed realistic by most it would be deemed absurd. All I will say is expect it to go above one dollar, much above. Don’t let market cap or supply for you. Most of the asset is held by a very small group of people who are not trading. The floating supply is much smaller.
B_Musk
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fool*
SwallowPremium
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We think it can work! Keep going!!
FuturesTradex
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11 billion mc, and unlimited supply... next luna is doge
memymentor
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@yildirimdubbai, Crazier things happen, the US prints unlimited $ and thew world still believe in it.