Assess probability of success, Buy and forget the share

This is a penny share with current market cap of 3.7million AUD
if it works it will shoot to the sky,
if it doesn't most likely it ll head to zero or negative, maybe you can sell at current entry as it is acting as some support.

Reasoning for this share, is due to a prospective gas discovery onshore north of the city of Derby in Western Australia.

mostly for block EP487,
the block was bought by REY Resources, 100%
REY has farmed out 50% of the block to Doriemus, with the condition of securing funds for drilling within 6 months and drilling an exploration well within a year.

How does exploration work in oil and gas? basically a seismic survey takes place, a seal rock cap is discovered, then you drill underneath the cap to confirm the gas (low probabilities ranging 5-15% to find something, throughout the industry)

In this block, EP487, the caps are explored, still the drilling to take place.

Refer to the pdf's here


But what to highlight, is there s two prospects,

1- the Butler sand
if there s gas, a 50% chance of finding 1.055Tcf of gas (of which DOR will hold half)
done some basic search on google , 1Tcf of gas is worth $3 billion at the wellhead (once consructed) and up to $9 billion if an LNG plant is ready. (dont take me as reference, do your search).
so the market cap of DOR can easily reach a magnitude of 100's million $ (not sure where), and the share will go up by multiple of x30 at least.

2- Laurel BCG
50% chance of discovering 28.4 Tcf or more in the field (10% change of finding 81 Tcf or more) (do the math yourself to get the market cap and how much the share will go up to)

Doriemus is planning drilling within the next year, for a well that will target both prospects (one is underneath the other)

Seperately, REY the original owner of the block, EP 487, had its share going up from 8cent to 29cents through the previous two months.

And please thoroughly go through those ASX reports yourself, I may have understood it wrong.
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