VictorCobra

Has DOT/BTC Set Its All-Time High?

Short
BITTREX:DOTBTC   Polkadot / Bitcoin
As I've stated in my recent posts, I think we're inching closer to peak market euphoria for crypto. Does this mean I think the top is in? Not necessarily. But it does mean that my bias is switching to selling, rather than buying. As I dollar-cost-averaged in during the bear market, I plan to scale out soon. I think this current crypto bubble is much more similar to the dotcom boom than the previous cycle. There's much more money involved this time, and a lot on the line. There appear to be less individual people taking out bank loans to buy crypto this time around (just based purely off Reddit posts) - we're instead seeing huge marketing efforts and more authentic crypto adoption by larger players. Adoption is good in the long run. It means crypto is likely here to stay (this was always a question after the last bubble popped). Now it's not a question. But this doesn't mean valuations need to stay this high. And the looming question of regulation remains.

People on social media seem to be taking their gains for granted, and speaking in absolutes as if financial freedom is guaranteed. Especially with newer hyped projects. This chart is an example of a more newly hyped project, and how its recent price action compares with a legacy crypto like LTC. Looks quite similar. If DOT/ BTC cannot break the supply zone overhead near 0.001, I think it's likely to head down towards all-time lows on the ratio. This is just an example of why I do not think "this time is different." Sure, there are some differences, as noted above. When you're wrapped up in the mania it's hard to see the other side.

In any case, I've heard good things about Polkadot. I might even pick some up if we see another big crypto winter. There's an argument to be made for Bitcoin having less severe drops in the future, but as we saw this summer, many alts can just drop 50% in a single day, or 80% over the span of 2 weeks. My strategy is about managing risk in the long term, and it's starting to seem a little risky up here.

This is not financial advice! This is meant for speculation only. This is only my personal view.

-Victor Cobra

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