As I've stated in my recent posts, I think we're inching closer to peak market euphoria for crypto. Does this mean I think the top is in? Not necessarily. But it does mean that my bias is switching to selling, rather than buying. As I dollar-cost-averaged in during the bear market, I plan to scale out soon. I think this current crypto bubble is much more similar to the dotcom boom than the previous cycle. There's much more money involved this time, and a lot on the line. There appear to be less individual people taking out bank loans to buy crypto this time around (just based purely off Reddit posts) - we're instead seeing huge marketing efforts and more authentic crypto adoption by larger players. Adoption is good in the long run. It means crypto is likely here to stay (this was always a question after the last bubble popped). Now it's not a question. But this doesn't mean valuations need to stay this high. And the looming question of regulation remains.
People on social media seem to be taking their gains for granted, and speaking in absolutes as if financial freedom is guaranteed. Especially with newer hyped projects. This chart is an example of a more newly hyped project, and how its recent price action compares with a legacy crypto like LTC. Looks quite similar. If DOT/BTC cannot break the supply zone overhead near 0.001, I think it's likely to head down towards all-time lows on the ratio. This is just an example of why I do not think "this time is different." Sure, there are some differences, as noted above. When you're wrapped up in the mania it's hard to see the other side.
In any case, I've heard good things about Polkadot. I might even pick some up if we see another big crypto winter. There's an argument to be made for Bitcoin having less severe drops in the future, but as we saw this summer, many alts can just drop 50% in a single day, or 80% over the span of 2 weeks. My strategy is about managing risk in the long term, and it's starting to seem a little risky up here.
This is not financial advice! This is meant for speculation only. This is only my personal view.
Interesting fractal. Not too worried on DOT as the monthly DOT/BTC charts paints a different picture...for now.
The other advantage DOT has over a legacy coin such as LTC is the supply sinks through the auctions. In theory *that should* lead to higher likelihood of price discovery as KSM current has approx. 32% of its supply locked through the crowdloan modules (DOT should follow).
I'm a bit bias though as I'm a big believer in Substrate! Thanks for the post Vic!
VictorCobra
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@HouseTarly, I think it’s possible DOT could do something different here - it’s not an EXACT fractal. But it would need to sustain above that horizontal resistance. Alts don’t tend to do that, if they’ve established a big range like this against BTC.
-Victor Cobra
Tommy_bnks
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Aa always, interesting thoughts.
suvny21
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victor go away market is crashing save your life!
VictorCobra
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@santana2331, AHHHHH running for the hills!
-Victor Cobra
suvny21
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@VictorCobra just run away, this road will end at 12k, i wrote this here this time and warned you. there is no 80k ir 130k or 500k
VictorCobra
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@santana2331, Make that 4k ;)
-Victor Cobra
suvny21
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@VictorCobra 4k is definitely your subconscious mind that tell you it's also possible
The other advantage DOT has over a legacy coin such as LTC is the supply sinks through the auctions. In theory *that should* lead to higher likelihood of price discovery as KSM current has approx. 32% of its supply locked through the crowdloan modules (DOT should follow).
I'm a bit bias though as I'm a big believer in Substrate! Thanks for the post Vic!