From a fundamental perspective I feel much more comfortable today than I did in 2007; we don't have any major industry bubbles, P/E's are not to high and we seem to have passed the major congressional issues without sending ourselves back into a recession.
After testing the majority of available indicators I have isolated a trading system that has covers the major market moves. For the last two years 100% of the time has broken below its 2.37 support the market pulled back, and 4/5 times hit its lower boundary the market rallied (the other time it came close... close only only counts in horses and hand grenades). Furthermore whenever went from being overbought to its normal purple trading range the Market also pulled back(in line with ). For the last few years this combination has proved highly effective, and lets hope it continues this way in the future.
So what now? For now it seems that we are safe. has not broken 2.37 and the has not yet returned to its normal territory. How long this will last I can not say, but it seems that in the next few months we are at least due for a minor pullback, though given, the positive housing data I don't think it will be that bad.
The end result is a loose state money/tight bank money monetary mix. And since bank money makes up 85 percent of the total, the money supply in the U.S. is still, on balance, tight, and below trend. That said, the broad Divisia M4 measure of the money supply has started to show signs of life in recent months.
However, only once in history has the fed managed to increase the discount rate 3 times(in a row) without triggering a recession. So obviously he is going to be super reluctant to change it.