Hello everyone. This analysis here is going to be a little bit different compared to my other approaches to the market, and that is simply because this is a different market than FOREX, and this is more of a investor type of analysis and approach to the market. I have been reading and hearing a lot about what's gonna happen next in the stocks market, so I thought I spend couple of good hours of analysis and share the results with you guys. DOW has been in a pretty much straight upward move without any major retracement since March 2009
. But, as the China's unstable market started to shake the international market including Nikkei 225
, US markets started to shake as well. During the last week only, the China's stock market ECN circuit breakers got activated 3 times, and we all know what that means! On the other hand, Gold
did break out of its long term channel since July 2013
last week, 12% increase since January of this year only, and we know that Gold
is the safe heaven for investors while stocks market is unstable. I'm gonna list some factors I'm considering showing the market might possibly go lower:
1. Relative Strength Index
clearly pointing towards the bearish
2. The first red bar of Chop Zone has already formed.
3. Price clearly below Exponential and Weight Moving Averages.
4. Market has failed to put any further higher highs.
Now, we are seeing some resistance currently, and in fact a double bottom
is formed on Weekly, and that is simply because of the structure and trend line
resistance. The 16000 psychological level is playing a key role here, as we can see 4 times price has reacted beautifully to that level. The close of February's candle is pretty much the determinant of the next market direction. We put a lower low, lower close below the 16000 level, we are very much likely to fall all the way to 14000 zone lining up with 38.2 fib. There is a whole lot more to discuss about this chart, but I want to keep it short, so that everyone would read through it. I hope this is beneficial both educationally and financially. Wish you all the best!