I am looking for a move towards the 200-days as an initial downside target around 15700, followed by the major at 14560-14550(this is just nearly 11 percent decline from current levels). A break and the ability to hold back above the latest major swing high at 16590 level could negate this setup. Note that the trade provides a great risk-reward ratio.
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Previous Analysis: Market Breadth:
52-week new highs:
Stocks that are breaking to new yearly highs, which is another key breadth indicator followed by market technicians, when the numbers starts to diverge failing to make new highs, while the price index continues to grind higher, this usually indicates the lack of internal strength and concerning.
Stocks above long term average:
Swings from excessive and sentiment have been a good contrarian market indicator for the past years. Every time the indexes of stocks above or below 200-days Average reached an extreme of 90-100 percent a correction in SP500 was close.
Instances where the index started falling, diverging away from the SP500 index (indicating internal strength is weakening) were signals, as at least a hefty correction followed. The chart below Illustrates these divergences, where periods of prolonged divergence followed by a more sever downside move, while minor divergences followed less severe corrections.