It is end of quarter here today - the close today will likely be a short-squeeze ramping and I'd expect it to close on the high of the day... just my sense at the moment. 10:56AM EST SPY +2.85 @ 190.97 currently...
But by the charts OIL completing its right shoulder is about due, as in this week or next at the latest to start down I think. Not sure what the catalyst will be, and will have to be something significant (perhaps a bad payroll report, unexpected) What do you think?
I don't think about oil in such a long term way...I see immediate upside, based on the present.
Once it breaks up, it'll hit 52, and up to 60.
After that? No clue, it can continue or it can resume the downtrend.
I think H&S is a lower probability, and suspicious diagnostication more often than not...to the extent that I don't consider it at all in my analysis.
My view is currently bullish for EURUSD, but in the short term I see a slight rebound in European equities is highly probable.
Oil, might take until NFP to rally, if it does, which I think is probable, around 60% chance.