Delinquency Rate on All Loans, All Commercial BanksFRED
Description
⋅
The red indicator shows the level of delinquency for each quarter. The blue index is the SPX. We have an inverse correlation.
With the increase in interest rates around the world, the cost of money becomes more expensive. The payment of loans becomes more expensive, so the percentage of defaulters tends to increase. To pay off debts, positions in the equity market are liquidated.
I'm waiting for the Q3 result (quarter 3 - July to September). Any bullish indication above the value of 1.24 (quarter 1) would already be a yellow signal. A value above 1.43 (Q1 2019) would be a red flag for an earthquake. That would trigger a further drop in the equity market...