At the time, the market was heavily favoring bears, but the predictive/forecasting model suggested a potential rallying to these levels.
As of today (08 OCT 2014), TG-1 got hit dead-on and price rolled down to carve a potential higher-lo (although there is no clear indication that it is done retracing).
Although the model did suggest a refinement in the bullish target (TG-Hi = 51.32), I will keep the chart as is, for the sake of simplicity and honesty (I want the targets to reflect the original predictive analysis and forecasting).
If anything, this loftier TG-Hi suggests that gold brushed itself off a bearish floor, and shows technical clues of further bullish intent.
The original chart is played out on a daily level, so feel free to request updates and opinions. I will do my best to respond whenever feasible.
Thank you,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
Reversed off wolfe wave resistance line on the weekly chart as well as forming a bearish outside bar on the daily on the top 21 day Bollinger band line and a RSI cross through 70.
This is quantified high probabilty trade set-up looking to get into a short for sure tradingview.com/v/MYFHc0Xo/. GOOD ANALYSIS MAN
Iridium
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and i just found this little guy
4xForecaster
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09 OCT 2014 - PEARL/Lesson:
"The House Cleaning", A Dynamic Pattern
- from David Alcindor, a.k.a.: "4xForecaster"
Friends,
I received several private messages via email and some via TradingView's PM requesting interim moves. I really appreciate the inquiries and trust in the analyses. However, please realize that I am on the road on a regular bases, driving across the Midwestern plains and the Colorado Rockies, where internet connection is scattered and rare.
Regarding DUST, the analysis I offered was on a daily basis. Some have requested analysis for interim moves, so the following comes with some delay, and represents an analysis on a H4 timeframe that may contrast with the one offered in the daily timeframe.
While the directional bias remains unchanged, I just want to point out that the targets may differ somewhat. Therefore, if you set your trading off of the daily, please do not mind the discrepancies that may be found off of the H4 chart, where the precision of the targets is simply different - The predictive/forecasting model was calibrated off of the H4 - here is the link to the original DUST analysis: tradingview.com/v/HbpGxbSo/
Here is what the H4 timeframe offers in term of most immediate target and potential price pathway:
Note that there are two large squares, highlighting internal Fibonacci levels. I am offering this visual to the Junior trader who seeks added visual aid in defining a potential support. Here, the idea is to define a Fibonacci cluster (best is to have at least THREE values leveling with one another), which would in fact represent a potential market consensus wherein several traders of different timeframe would partake in the same directional action. Here, as price resides at the low end of a larger bearish swing, the consensus calls for a rallying. Therefore, lower Fibonacci values would be sought, in the range of 0.500 to 0.618.
There is a dynamic pattern I have discovered and ended naming "House Cleaning" where price would first describe higher lows times two, each no lesser than 0.786 (ideally, but tolerably down to 0.886). What would ensue would be the signal, which would appear as a third higher low exactly at 0.500 - Here, the lowest value in price is = 14.23. So, we are talking about a 0.786 retracement from this level, which so far has NOT occurred. Instead, price rose and retraced to the current 0.500. What would need to happen is a decline to 0.786 of this recent upswing, then a new structural top, followed by another deep decline to 0.786 from this new high, then once again a rallying and retracement, but only to 50%. This would effectively mark a solid rallying point.
The is called a "House Cleaning" because each new structural highs are followed by a deep sweeping of weak hands having defined their stop-losses above the recent low. This event would be repeated twice. Since the second higher high would cause a higher 0.786 retracement in terms of price value, it would thus be okay to raise the prior stop-loss to the level right below the first 0.786 level.
In the case of this chart, watch whether this would occur or not.
I have defined a RED dashed line to recommend a cash position until such a time as this level is revisited (ideally, I would wait until the GREEN line is surpassed to re-enter. However, a more aggressive breed of trader ( ... hmmm ... Hi! ... ) would look to enter at partial positions as soon as the 0.786 level is hit.
Remember that all of this is for educational use only, that I am not certified in anything financial, technical or whatever market certification there might be, and that I have no position in this ETF.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
PS: The "House Cleaning" is referred to as a "dynamic pattern" as it depended on a dynamic set of price action, as opposed to a static market geometry.
David
4xForecaster
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09 OCT 2014: "House Cleaning" Proprietary Pattern shared on Twitter:
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"DUST: Lesson on a proprietary strategy called:
via @TradingView"
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David Alcindor
Smarttrade1st
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thank your for sharing
4xForecaster
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Yes, you are very welcome - David
4xForecaster
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CLARIFICATION - Here looking at NZDUSD, you can see very clearly how the first upswing from the structural low (i.e.: lowest low value) was followed by a deep retracement to 0.786 (see how 0.886 was spared, which is a very common feature in this dynamic pattern).
Now that price has rallied to a new structural high, it has also retraced somewhat. This is exactly where you need to remain vigilant as to the possibility of this "House Cleaning" to develop. If price rallied from here, the pattern would simply not be able to exist. However, if price declined further to a proportional 0786 level (i.e.: price will end up at a higher termination retracement since it started from a higher level) and ideally if it would also spare the 0.886 level, then you have have witnessed the SECOND condition of this time-consumptive pattern. And lastly, if and once price was to retrace once more from a higher high, but this time posting a 50% retracement, then you are effectively getting a solid signal for a high-probability rallying into significant height.
Note that I have left the prior targets ghosted in the chart. As explained before, the numerical targets (i..e: TG-1, TG-2, TG-3, ... TG-n) if and once hit, they would represent future pivot levels, whereas nominal targets (TG-Lo or TG-Hi) if ever hit, they would represent high-probability reversal levels.
Since we could cross path with former numerical target, I have tended to leave these former targets ghosted in the chart, so as to remain aware of their potential impact on price development once re-visited.
Thank you,
David Alcindor
IvanLabrie
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Excellent, this pattern reminds me of something Chris Moody recently posted.
Looks awfully similar...
4xForecaster
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Hello @IvanLabrie - The plotting is not correct. The 0.786 x 0.786 x 0.500 has to share the same base. The base is defined by the lowest low, which is the low-value used in the first Fib scale.
In your example, you have used a higher base in the second Fib scale, and once again a higher high in the third one.
What this demonstrate quite well though, is the sequential consumption of bears within each of the square, such that it takes less and less depth in Fib retracement as the pool of seller diminish, hence the overall higher higher lows. Note also that in this example, higher-highs are interspersed with lower highs, which is also not a feature of the "House Cleaning".
In contrast, the "House Cleaning" stands its ground at the lowest low, which is the comparative base used as the institutional traders "vacuum clean the stop-losses" following each higher highs.
From Twitter:
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DUST hit all targets but outlier TG-x @ 52.76; Gap fill then rally likely scenario:
@TradingView | XAU GOLD
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David Alcindor