CRInvestor
Short

DXY - long term cycles suggest the greenback could get hit hard

ICEUSA:DX1!   U.S. Dollar Index
153 13 3
Every once in a while it is good to refresh our view of the US Dollar index             and where it currently sits within its 17.5 year fear/greed cycles. We entered our current 'fear' cycle shortly after the dot.com blowup near the turn of the century. We are now 14 years into that cycle and are fast approaching its peak (expected Q3'17). Sadly, based on a few Fib studies, it looks like the greenback may have to lose at least half of its value over the coming few years. This could get quite ugly as the end of many fear cycles often do. Given this backdrop, it only makes sense why the concept of crypto-currencies have come about. It seems we are collectively charging a hundred miles an hour towards this fear peak. Interestingly, historically gold             and other precious metals are the last resort for investors through these fear cycles - will crypto-currencies be the new gold???
OldGoat
2 years ago
Not dismissing your analysis, but I am having a hard time reconciling what events might trigger this big downward thrust in the US Dollar. This is in light of a bearish forecast I published today for the US stock market. The only type of events I have been able to envision would likely hurt other currencies as well. Economy, war, major cyber attack, major terrorist attack, politics?

Thanks for posting your analysis and may all your trades be profitable.
Reply
CRInvestor PRO OldGoat
2 years ago
QE4 might do it...lol
Reply
CRInvestor PRO OldGoat
2 years ago
listened to an analyst talk about about another housing bubble forming in US, too funny
Reply
OldGoat CRInvestor
2 years ago
QE4 seems highly unlikely. Though a housing bubble may be a higher probability, one that would be isolated to the US that could have that much impact also seems implausible. And I don't think anything Putin may do would shift DXY that much. Perhaps I am too optimistic. ;-)
Reply
CRInvestor PRO OldGoat
2 years ago
well my friend, never say never....lol
Reply
CRInvestor PRO OldGoat
2 years ago
we used to say, you can't write better fiction then reality, so who knows what the 'reason' will be. Having said that, imo it is really a function of the demographic cycle more than anything else...DXY is basically the world's 'financial asset proxy' (for the time being) and it follows very normal 35 year cycles....not really too big of a suprise
Reply
CRInvestor PRO OldGoat
2 years ago
and what is really concerning to me today is that the younger generation has absolutely no faith in 'the system' (a la BitCoins). I run a show on the Coins every Wednesday and the sentiment among the younger generation is the US dollar is toast......another saying we used to have....'careful what you wish for, you might just get it good and hard'....
Reply
Sohtionghum OldGoat
2 years ago
There's many a slip between the cup and the lip.
Reply
CRInvestor PRO Sohtionghum
2 years ago
I used to have a client who always quoted that old Scottish saying....and well you, if it ain't Scottish - its crap! lol
Reply
Sohtionghum CRInvestor
2 years ago
I had no idea that its Scottish. First encountered this saying in the Aubrey-Maturin series of books by Patrick O'Brien.

I tend to believe that the Federal Reserve will QE on and on since none of the current political leaders/central bankers have shown that they got the stomach to take measures to restructure markets.
Reply
CRInvestor PRO Sohtionghum
2 years ago
yup and now we have some deflationary data to support the policy (view my Twitter feed for more on that)
Reply
Justice
2 years ago
Looks good Brian. What are the major positions you take to take advantage of such an event?
Reply
CRInvestor PRO Justice
2 years ago
BTC wft....lol (and some commodities too). Having said that, typically US$ does ok during Democrat Executive terms. So with this in mind I don't expect DXY to really start to fall out of bed until well into Barry's last year in office. For historical reference, the market (meaning everything that was propped up during Jr. Bush's term) started to break apart in late 2007 - or about 1 year prior to him leaving office....
+1 Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out