Dollar overbought after Central Banks hand out their cards
Weekly:
- Ichimoku looks more bullish again, but for trend continuation it needs a confirmation break above 98.
- Heikin Ashi is bullish, next week's candle will be green as well as spot price is much higher from current candle body mid.
- Price reached horizontal range top and channel (flag?) top. 98 will be some form of resistance, we can see a bit of consolidation at this high.
Daily:
- Due to central banks action price blew up from 94 range bottom and almost reached the range top. However the red downtrendline precisely blocked bulls at 97,75 as market got overbought. Ichimoku setup is bullish.
- haDelta had some negative divergence during last few days, warning Bulls they should get out or reduce longs. Today Heikin Ashi signals consolidation has started. Picture is similar to 22/July, so a short term pull back to 96,50 is possible.
ECB: promising, but it looks like not all MPC members agree they really need to load more QE from December. Anyway, it is still a long time until December meeting.
FED: I really do not understand why the USD was bought on back of their comments. I did not see any serious change in their communication. Changing 1-2 words will not mean they hike. US macro figures have been deteriorating a lot in last 1 month. Talk is cheap, but of course they want to build some credibility.
BoJ: Mr. Kuorda again says they are flexibel and would act and do more any time if needed... but they did not do anything today, no change in their QE or monetary policy!
I think we can try a swing sell again in smaller size within 97,00 - 97,50 range, with stop above 98,05.
- Ichimoku looks more bullish again, but for trend continuation it needs a confirmation break above 98.
- Heikin Ashi is bullish, next week's candle will be green as well as spot price is much higher from current candle body mid.
- Price reached horizontal range top and channel (flag?) top. 98 will be some form of resistance, we can see a bit of consolidation at this high.
Daily:
- Due to central banks action price blew up from 94 range bottom and almost reached the range top. However the red downtrendline precisely blocked bulls at 97,75 as market got overbought. Ichimoku setup is bullish.
- haDelta had some negative divergence during last few days, warning Bulls they should get out or reduce longs. Today Heikin Ashi signals consolidation has started. Picture is similar to 22/July, so a short term pull back to 96,50 is possible.
ECB: promising, but it looks like not all MPC members agree they really need to load more QE from December. Anyway, it is still a long time until December meeting.
FED: I really do not understand why the USD was bought on back of their comments. I did not see any serious change in their communication. Changing 1-2 words will not mean they hike. US macro figures have been deteriorating a lot in last 1 month. Talk is cheap, but of course they want to build some credibility.
BoJ: Mr. Kuorda again says they are flexibel and would act and do more any time if needed... but they did not do anything today, no change in their QE or monetary policy!
I think we can try a swing sell again in smaller size within 97,00 - 97,50 range, with stop above 98,05.