What market participants expected: - 2023 Sept: Betting one last rate hike (a 4th in year 2023) in Nov/Dec FOMC meeting. - 2023 Dec: No rate hike in Dec FOMC meeting. Afterwards, expected the Fed to cut in March 2024
What the Fed told us: - According to the 'dot plot', majority of committee anticipate a 50-100 bps cut by the end of 2024. - Powell once said the Fed will act if inflation comes back up.
USD movement: - "Hawkish" Nov/Dec rate hike expectation fell short that was interpreted as Powell's "dovish" stance. - Implied 150 bps rate cut mismatched the Fed's projection. - Speculations amplified the "mismatch" during holiday session when traders and fed officials are in the holiday. - When volume comes back after holiday, markets act to correct.
Technical view: - DXY still being the triangle, i.e. support found upon its upward trendline - Short-run key level would be 103, where around a former bottom - Actual resistance should be 104 when an inverted Head and Shoulder pattern is forming.
Comment
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DXY faced a barrier at 104.60-80.It is still trading within the triangle and getting closer to the apex. A breakout is expected to in short term.
Technical view: - If breaking out the downward trendline, next upside target is gonna be 105.50. - If breakout not seen, then downside support is at around 102.