I have 2 examples of how this trade can be taking. A conservative trader may choose to take this trade at the . of the X to C leg ( Completion), whereas a more aggressive trader may choose to take this trade at previous structure to avoid the possibility of there entry order not getting filled.
Taking an aggressive entry on this trade will make your Risk/Reward a little smaller (Closer to a 1:1)
I have personally decided to take an aggressive entry on this trade, keep in mind that I have done extensive back testing for my strategies and my position size is large enough to allow me to take this setup. I will be looking to take 50-70% of my trade off the table to lock in profits at Target 1 for the . I will then be rolling my stops to near break even for the remainder of the trade. I will be sure to update this idea to keep you informed on how I am managing my position.
REASONS FOR ENTRY:
1) Completion (technically the does not complete until the . but this meets my conditions for entry, derived from back testing)
2) Previous , looks to be holding as support with some buying at that level (highlighted in yellow)
3) Price is sitting on the 200 Period and could serve as extra support as well as initiate some buying to get us the bounce we are looking for.
4) Price has closed outside of the bottom several times on the (Shown below). Please check out my other idea that was recently posted called "Bounce coming in Gold -0.18%and Silver?" to get a better idea of what a close outside of the may mean along with more details on how to use it (link to idea below)
5) We have a "oversold" Stochastics indicator which doesn't necessarily mean price will reverse as I have also explained in previous ideas however it is another factor.
I would like to see a nice strong green candle close inside the bands however I am prepared for a little more down side. I will also be using the precious metals price action to help manage the position. Feel free to comment below and good luck trading!
1- Price goes sideways, in this case I will base my decision on the next strong candle, if its a strong green candle, I will continue to hold the remaining position for Target 2 however, if it is a strong red candle then I will look to take profits.
2- Price bounces off the 20 period SMA, Again, with a strong red candle. in this case I will take profits. (it must be a Strong Selling candle, not a red candle alone)
3- Price breaks above the 20 period SMA but breaks through with a weak candle and then has no follow through (in other words, price breaks above the 20 period SMA but the following candle does not exceed the high of the candle that broke above the SMA). In this case, I will look to sell my remaining position right before the close of that candle.
4- Price breaks through the 20 period moving average with a strong green candle, in this case I will look for target 2 while adjusting my Sell limit orders based on the price level of the upper Bollinger Band. I hope this was clear, please feel free to comment with any questions! good luck trading!
1. Price Breaks and closes below the 20 period SMA with a Strong selling Candle, IN this case I will move my trailing stop right up below the low of that candle (assuming that candle does not exceed my current stop)
2. We have another strong Buyers Candle, In this case I will be looking for price to touch or exceed the upper bollinger band. If price exceeds the upper bollinger band (on an intraday basis, it does not need to close above band), then i will look to sell the remaining position.