Weekly Fundamentals: Nov 25-29
Looking at the week ahead, the majority of the fundamental data to develop will be around the major central banks and their respective leaders. In addition there are a few other things to keep in mind for this week.
All times in UTC, GMT.
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Nov 26
-0:00 UT: Chairman of the FED Jerome Powell will speak today in Rhode Island. He is suppose to deliver a prepared speech which could give the market an early catalyst to start the week going into the Asian session tomorrow. This speech is important I think because it seems that a growing number of fed officials are akin to the “wait and see” policy. After 3 rate cuts this year from the Federal Open Market Committee, this last meeting by the FOMC in 16 days on the 11th of December. I personally think the Fed will not raise nor cut interest rates at this next meeting.
-09:05: UTC, Gov. of the Royal Bank of Australia will speak in Sydney. The question is: will the RBA resort to unconventional monetary policy tools to insulate the Australian Economy as we continue to see the U.S. and China negotiate on the 1st round of trade tariffs.
-13:30: U.S. trade deficit figures with an expectation of a widening deficit to $71B for the month of October.
-15:00: U.S consumer confidence survey for the month of Nov. with an expected uptick form 125.9 to 127. The significance that this economic outlook will have on the dollar will be relative this week I think to the DXY’s price action so pay attention to it then. I linked the GDP model which is heavily based off of this report.
-22:00: Reserve bank of N.Z. Gov Adrian Orr will deliver the Financial Stability Review (FSR) which is relevant because of the previous interest rate decision where markets that expected a rate cut were mislead and now have to wait until next year before another interest rate decision for the RBNZ.
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Nov 27
-13:30: Another contract is expected for U.S. durable goods orders of -0.7% for the month of October, which follows a -1.2% reading last month for the month of September. Durable goods is one of the most key indicators that FED officials look at when gauging the viability of an interest rate change.
-15:00: Also, GDP for Q3 and yearly PCE for October. This is the FEDs preferred gauge for economic activity.
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Nov 28
- 06:45: GBP numbers for Q3 out of Switzerland expecting a growth of 0.8% vs. last quarters 0.2%.
-13:00: An uptick is expected for German consumer price index numbers from 1.1% to 1.2%, an increase of +0.1%. This will be looked at directly by the ECB for their policy going forward with Christine Lagarde.
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Nov 29
-08:55: German unemployment numbers with a slight contraction from last months reading expected.
-10:00: Euro-zone inflation numbers with upticks of 0.1% expected to 1.2% from 1.1% for core inflation and +0.2% to 0.9% from 0.7% for the estimate.
-13:30: Canadian GDP numbers will be a major mover I think this week. A pretty significant slowdown is expected down -2.4% to 1.3% from Q2s +3.7% reading.
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Nov 30
-1:00 UT: The week will end with the Chinese manufacturing PMI’s. Remember that any number above 50 is an expansion and below is considered a contraction.
