this post is related to the following tweet posted by @EdVanDerWalt.
Starting point: the top made on Jan 2002 by the US Trade Wighted Broad Dollar is = to top made on Jan 2002 by US dollar Index .
- Top forming by the US Trade Weighted Broad Dollar on Jan 2017 same level as its 2002 top
- Top forming by the US dollar Index on Jan 2017 lower level then its 2002 top.
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Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
"Short the dollar vs. emerging market currencies
Salman Baig, an investment manager at Unigestion SA, sees the U.S. dollar steady or falling against emerging market currencies, a turnaround from last year when the greenback rose against all major currencies except the Japanese yen and the Mexican peso. Macro forces that supported the dollar in 2018, such as higher relative growth and a Federal Reserve that was raising rates, “look likely to stabilize or reverse in 2019,” said Baig. Gridlock in Washington could weigh on the dollar as well, he said.
Morgan Stanley recently told clients that a weaker dollar in 2019 could reverse several other major investment themes that have driven markets for the last few years. Emerging market credit could do better than U.S. high yield bonds, value stocks could finally outpace growth equities and U.S. shares may lag the rest of the world.
Turkey in particular should benefit from expectations that the Fed and European Central Bank will be less aggressive in raising rates this year. The Turkish central bank has said it will maintain tight monetary policy until its inflation outlook improves, even as the economy decelerates sharply."