Hi. Another comment on signal compatibility. In EMA crossing a true death cross should be considered the crossing of EMA100/EMA200. This is usually always dangerous. Since the model situation I want to discuss is now occurring on the daily DXY, let us take it.
1. So there is a fresh death cross printed on January 6. 2. There is no crossing of EMA100/EMA200 now. 3. The candles came out from under diagonal resistance (what about the fact that the rate hike was already built into the conditions by the market?! lol).
But how do I know if the momentum is depleted? The index has no volume... With volatility outlook.
4. SQZMOM_LB shows a daily divergence and a squeeze entry before jumping up. Further rise in DXY will be supported by expansion momentum. 5. So I have some confusion about the death cross indication and its possible consequences... If there is no support in the form of right away falling volatility for example... That is why I am looking at other crosses. 6. It turns out that if I short DXY anyway more important indication would be EMA20 and EMA 50 (red and orange). Since the move should be taken as early as possible and not wait for "iron" confirmations. But it turns out that MA cross is too late for a short, and not convincing enough for a continuation of the short at the moment when the cross finally happened... 7. In this case I think we're in for a ~108 level attack, which will prevent a cross at EMA100/200.
Comment
⋅
OK, if anyone is offended by the "Education" status, I won't put it up. You are responsible adults. You have to decide for yourselves whether it teaches you something or not. If you don't like any of this, just don't read me and don't believe me. I really appreciate unambiguity.
Thanks for this nice detailed view. USD strength returned and remains at the beginning of the week after the U.S. labor market data on Friday was much stronger than expected. The USD remained in demand as analysts are now backing away from their dovish expectations, especially as the tight employment sector adds to price pressures and the Fed has hinted several times that the U.S. labor market will play an important role in its decision making. Let's see how Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will address the very tight labor market especially the risk to inflation from rising wages.
averkie_skila
⋅
@AngelaCat, Thank you for your comment. Again, I am frankly surprised at how when analysing DXY some people simply don't take the Fed's rate decisions, believing they can be juggled with. Not too strict decision = good decision. Heck, it's self-defeating. I guess it's the BTC trading experience that's putting the vigilance to sleep. )))
AngelaCat
⋅
@averkie_skila It seems investors are ignoring Powell's comments again 😉. To be honest, they were also not very decisive. The January jobs report came in much hotter than all expected, reinforcing fears that the Fed thinks more rate hikes are necessary. Hardly see any room for easing rate hikes anytime soon.
Finchcliffe
⋅
Agree with all of this, thanks for sharing!! I also think DXY is ready to pop too!
TheCryptagon
⋅
Noted, thank you! We are sharing our view as well below:
averkie_skila
⋅
@TheCryptagon, Dynamic support detected on the 2 hour chart cross EMA100/200. From this I expect a reversal level of 102.5.