DXY Analysis (February 13, 2026): Technicals & Macro-Fundamental

1. Technical Analysis: Levels and Structure
The DXY index is under pressure, testing critical support zones following the decline in 2025. We are approaching key levels that will trigger either a technical bounce or an accelerated drop.

Current Price: ~97.05 (Consolidation zone).

Trend: Descending (Medium-term Bearish).

Key Levels (Support & Resistance):

Resistance 1 (R1): 97.75 — Mirror level (former support). A break above is necessary for bulls to catch their breath.

Resistance 2 (R2): 98.70 — January 2026 highs.

Pivot (Trend Reversal): 100.20 — Only a close above this invalidates the global "bearish" scenario.

Support 1 (S1): 96.65–96.80 — Local "bottom". If this fails to hold, price drops lower.

Support 2 (S2): 96.00 — Psychological barrier.

Support 3 (S3): 94.50 — Next major target upon a breakdown of 96.00.

2. Fundamental Analysis: Macro Risks

A. Fed Rate & Inflation
The market expects rate cuts to ~3.25–3.50% by year-end. Monetary easing reduces US bond yields, making the dollar less attractive for carry trades compared to previous years.

B. US National Debt

Figures: US National Debt reached $38.56 trillion in February 2026 (up $2.35T YoY).

Impact on DXY: The massive debt load weighs on the dollar long-term. Investors fear "fiscal dominance," where the Fed is forced to print money or keep rates low to service debt. This is a classic currency devaluation scenario.

Forecast: The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) predicts debt will exceed 101% of GDP in 2026 and continue rising to record highs by 2030. This creates structural selling pressure for the USD.

C. De-dollarization Trend

CB Reserves: The dollar's share of global reserves continues to decline. From ~71% in 1999, it has fallen to ~56-57% by 2026.

Diversification: Central Banks (especially in Asia and BRICS) are actively buying Gold and other currencies, reducing reliance on US Treasuries. This is a long-term trend slowly but surely eroding DXY strength.

Nuance: Despite the drop in reserves, the dollar still dominates global payments (about 50% of all SWIFT transactions). The "death of the dollar" is exaggerated in the short term but evident in the long term.

3. Trading Conclusion (Action Plan)

For the Trader (Short-term):

Bias: Bearish, but cautious. We are sitting at support.

Scenario: Wait for a reaction at 96.65. If we break below — short to 96.00 and 94.50. If we bounce — long with a short target up to 97.75.

Risk: A sudden spike in bond yields (US10Y) could give the dollar a temporary boost.

For the Investor (Mid/Long-term):

The combination of rising national debt ($38.5T+) and declining reserve share suggests that any DXY rally should be viewed as an opportunity to exit into hard assets (BTC, Gold, Real Estate). Globally, the dollar is losing purchasing power.