Good Morning All ,
It has been a long while since I posted, but it has also been along time since I have been active in trading as well. i squared off my positions and just been speculating and watching the craziness that continues to unfold. For some of the OG Traders out there you might have come across my stuff in the past, but for some of the new guys new to trading what a time to be alive. To re-itterate some points I have made in the past I am not political I consider myself a centralist with right sided tendencies. (because of my views about business and taxes) . this post will be rudimentary in aspects for people that live here in the US. So if not interested then skip the italicized section.
okay, what we have here is the dollar index, and its basically a measure of strength of the US' economy against 8 other countries. Now, I live in the US and here is a very basic political breakdown of our political system
republicans- it's the political conservatives of the country and business liberal. Meaning that they hold traditional values when it comes to policies and encourages borrowing for business growth and borrowing for political agenda.
Democrats- it's the political liberals of the country and business conservative. Meaning they hold progressive policy values and encourage high taxation to fund their political agenda.
We need both in the US to keep the balance to much right sided-ness we fall into a communists like state and too much left sided nss and we fall into the hands of socialism. so a health mix of both is needed to keep us in check.
Now, the world is coming into hard times because of the US' liberal fiduciary policies as of late and now we are trying to reel that back. The US is the world reserve and will continue to be for the foreseeable future, and the reason i say that is I don't see the world entrusting China to report the truth of the Yuan's value if it were to become the reserve currency of the world. I know a lot of people think that china is the next super power to rise and become the reserve status of the world, but until they become more transparent i don't see it happening. The only country I see rising to take that spot is the UK. They have the second largest FREE trade economy of the world, and could potentially return to the reserve status. The EU stands a chance, but I don't see Germany being able to support the world economy that would be required to make the EU possible. Basically, which demon do you want to deal with, because none of the options are ideal.
Now, if some of the EU countries that takes from the Euro really step their game up and produced for more the euro instead of take then they could become a viable option too, but as far as china I just don't see the world entrusting them to hold that type of power. I mean their housing market is currently a Ponzi Scheme, and their having to use military force to keep citizens from breaking into the banks to get their money back out. The US' SEC a year or two ago placed harsh restrictions and banned a lot of Chinese companies from the US open tradable market, because they were cooking their books and inflating earnings and deflating expenses, and rumor has it that the chinese government knew about it and allowed it, to continue to boost their economy via foreign monies.
Back to the Dollar, the Dollar index has an inverse relationship with the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Why?
Because, the DXY is a visual representation of the current status of the Economy. When the dollar was in the 8X's the last two years times were good, people were making a lot of monies while spending and living the good life?
Why? because the Fed made money cheap. So, the cost of doing business was cheap profits were just as large as the margins. So, business operations got fat in the sense of a CEO or C-Suite personnel needing 2-3 assistants and having bean counters to double check the primary bean counters. Now, Powell has consistently held to his target inflation rate of 2% its all over the FED's website and echoed in his speeches. which is the reason of his 75 base point interest rate hikes.
What I see coming is another Great Depression. Because for many of the technical traders in the world there is more to a company than numbers on a chart. Investors large and small make monetary contributions to these companies in return for returns. well during COVID-19 money flooded the market and business were able to continue to run. Since the beginning of COVID I knew a lot of businesses were in trouble because they were publicly reporting inflated numbers to the SEC, and the SEC TOOK THEM?!?! So it looked like these businesses were doing way better than they actually were, and now their board of directors and shareholders expect them to continue to run at that level.
Now, that money is drying up and these businesses are about to lose their funding from both ends. On one end their investors (already starting) are squaring off their positions. So, one way to prop up the facade of success is to do massive layoffs to trim the fat. Run the business very lean. That doesn't boost revenue that really just stabilizes the load. putting a plug in a hole on a boat as it were. These massive layoffs lead to lower GDP and two consecutive reports of shrinkage equals a recession.
The Fed Continues to raise interest rates making the dollar expensive to do business. When someone looks at a business' 10K and finds their balance sheet or earnings they will see massive amounts of debt. this debt is typically owed to a major lending institution. These loans, though not designed for the purpose, they are used to fund operations and growth. good businesses have cash on hand to pay off loans in times of hardship and inexperienced leaders are frivolous with the tax-free money. When this money becomes more expensive businesses can no longer afford to take loans out and are forced to remain the same, shrink, sell-out to a competitor, or go out of business all together.
part of the problem is that it now keeps people working because they lost 10-12 years out of their 401k due to the stock market correction, students coming out of college with massive amounts of student loan debt and are forced to take a job making 10-15 dollars an hour with student loan payments being around 300-1000$ a month which will lead to defaults because they cant afford to live alone, and are going to move back in with their parents. and hopefully their parents are not retired, because if so they're going to have to help their family with utility bills and mortgages and care less about their student loans. much less if their parents don't make the cut at work due to the layoffs.
Now, this causes a major problem because those once employed people are now jobless and can no longer keep their payments to their mortgage company. And now these mortgage backed securities are going to start imploding on the people that bought them and repeat 2008.
This is just the inherit fallout of these type of securities. I mean i understand their purpose, which is used to get back money to keep the velocity of money up, but no matter the credit score if a person loses their job and can not find work then payments are going to be missed.
this will ultimately lead to a depression.
what saved us last time from a depression was the US "FOUND" weapons of mass destruction and we launched an all-out attack on Iraq. and then when we finally "FOUND" said weapons we then decided to focus our attention on the people that attacked us on 9/11. But, this is not the only time the US used war to re-bound out of a depression, WW1 aka the great war ramped up our economy and we were magically out of a depression and then shortly aft Dub Dub 1 we found ourselves in Dub Dub 2. the pattern is repeated over and over in our history. the cold war got us out of the stink in the mid 80's with the cold war, and gulf war in the 90s.
will the US find Hillary Clinton's Emails in China and now we go to war with china? Who Knows. (this was sarcasm)
I think we need a business savvy executive whether man or woman to be elected as president and get the country back on the rails. We need good monetary policy in place, we need to support small business here in the states to keep big businesses from becoming monopolies and drive prices down. we need more diversity in the economy. Because a more diverse economy = a cheaper place to live.
with all of that being said I forsee dollar to continue to get more and more expensive with the minimum being 12X.xx, median being in the 14X.xx and the maximum being somewhere around 15X.xx. I see interest rates forcing everyone's hand to show what their hiding. I see weak businesses going under, smart strong businesses staying afloat and will grow exponentially when the storm passes.
another potential thing is that the FED might think they over extended and might bump interest rates down or keep them the same for a brief time (this is a temporary fix), but I still see them raising rates to get back to 2%.
this is not financial advice, but my play book is to continue to sit on liquid cash and I would say a good indicator for me to jump back in is to see 4 or 5 maybe even 6 Fed meetings where the interest rates remain unchanged or begin to drop consecutively. So gather all your pennies, begin to live lean, and when the fed begins to keep interest rates unchanged begin to look at who is still walking around Wall St. and think about investing with them.
i do think if the US votes with their intelligence and not their emotions we can avoid all of what I wrote. and I truly do hope I am wrong!
@TayFx crazy to see man how two years ago we were called perma-bears and crazy and now we look like Wall St. prophets. LOL Hope all is well bud! HMU when you get a chance!
It has been a long while since I posted, but it has also been along time since I have been active in trading as well. i squared off my positions and just been speculating and watching the craziness that continues to unfold. For some of the OG Traders out there you might have come across my stuff in the past, but for some of the new guys new to trading what a time to be alive. To re-itterate some points I have made in the past I am not political I consider myself a centralist with right sided tendencies. (because of my views about business and taxes) . this post will be rudimentary in aspects for people that live here in the US. So if not interested then skip the italicized section.
okay, what we have here is the dollar index, and its basically a measure of strength of the US' economy against 8 other countries. Now, I live in the US and here is a very basic political breakdown of our political system
republicans- it's the political conservatives of the country and business liberal. Meaning that they hold traditional values when it comes to policies and encourages borrowing for business growth and borrowing for political agenda.
Democrats- it's the political liberals of the country and business conservative. Meaning they hold progressive policy values and encourage high taxation to fund their political agenda.
We need both in the US to keep the balance to much right sided-ness we fall into a communists like state and too much left sided nss and we fall into the hands of socialism. so a health mix of both is needed to keep us in check.
Now, the world is coming into hard times because of the US' liberal fiduciary policies as of late and now we are trying to reel that back. The US is the world reserve and will continue to be for the foreseeable future, and the reason i say that is I don't see the world entrusting China to report the truth of the Yuan's value if it were to become the reserve currency of the world. I know a lot of people think that china is the next super power to rise and become the reserve status of the world, but until they become more transparent i don't see it happening. The only country I see rising to take that spot is the UK. They have the second largest FREE trade economy of the world, and could potentially return to the reserve status. The EU stands a chance, but I don't see Germany being able to support the world economy that would be required to make the EU possible. Basically, which demon do you want to deal with, because none of the options are ideal.
Now, if some of the EU countries that takes from the Euro really step their game up and produced for more the euro instead of take then they could become a viable option too, but as far as china I just don't see the world entrusting them to hold that type of power. I mean their housing market is currently a Ponzi Scheme, and their having to use military force to keep citizens from breaking into the banks to get their money back out. The US' SEC a year or two ago placed harsh restrictions and banned a lot of Chinese companies from the US open tradable market, because they were cooking their books and inflating earnings and deflating expenses, and rumor has it that the chinese government knew about it and allowed it, to continue to boost their economy via foreign monies.
Back to the Dollar, the Dollar index has an inverse relationship with the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Why?
Because, the DXY is a visual representation of the current status of the Economy. When the dollar was in the 8X's the last two years times were good, people were making a lot of monies while spending and living the good life?
Why? because the Fed made money cheap. So, the cost of doing business was cheap profits were just as large as the margins. So, business operations got fat in the sense of a CEO or C-Suite personnel needing 2-3 assistants and having bean counters to double check the primary bean counters. Now, Powell has consistently held to his target inflation rate of 2% its all over the FED's website and echoed in his speeches. which is the reason of his 75 base point interest rate hikes.
What I see coming is another Great Depression. Because for many of the technical traders in the world there is more to a company than numbers on a chart. Investors large and small make monetary contributions to these companies in return for returns. well during COVID-19 money flooded the market and business were able to continue to run. Since the beginning of COVID I knew a lot of businesses were in trouble because they were publicly reporting inflated numbers to the SEC, and the SEC TOOK THEM?!?! So it looked like these businesses were doing way better than they actually were, and now their board of directors and shareholders expect them to continue to run at that level.
Now, that money is drying up and these businesses are about to lose their funding from both ends. On one end their investors (already starting) are squaring off their positions. So, one way to prop up the facade of success is to do massive layoffs to trim the fat. Run the business very lean. That doesn't boost revenue that really just stabilizes the load. putting a plug in a hole on a boat as it were. These massive layoffs lead to lower GDP and two consecutive reports of shrinkage equals a recession.
The Fed Continues to raise interest rates making the dollar expensive to do business. When someone looks at a business' 10K and finds their balance sheet or earnings they will see massive amounts of debt. this debt is typically owed to a major lending institution. These loans, though not designed for the purpose, they are used to fund operations and growth. good businesses have cash on hand to pay off loans in times of hardship and inexperienced leaders are frivolous with the tax-free money. When this money becomes more expensive businesses can no longer afford to take loans out and are forced to remain the same, shrink, sell-out to a competitor, or go out of business all together.
part of the problem is that it now keeps people working because they lost 10-12 years out of their 401k due to the stock market correction, students coming out of college with massive amounts of student loan debt and are forced to take a job making 10-15 dollars an hour with student loan payments being around 300-1000$ a month which will lead to defaults because they cant afford to live alone, and are going to move back in with their parents. and hopefully their parents are not retired, because if so they're going to have to help their family with utility bills and mortgages and care less about their student loans. much less if their parents don't make the cut at work due to the layoffs.
Now, this causes a major problem because those once employed people are now jobless and can no longer keep their payments to their mortgage company. And now these mortgage backed securities are going to start imploding on the people that bought them and repeat 2008.
This is just the inherit fallout of these type of securities. I mean i understand their purpose, which is used to get back money to keep the velocity of money up, but no matter the credit score if a person loses their job and can not find work then payments are going to be missed.
this will ultimately lead to a depression.
what saved us last time from a depression was the US "FOUND" weapons of mass destruction and we launched an all-out attack on Iraq. and then when we finally "FOUND" said weapons we then decided to focus our attention on the people that attacked us on 9/11. But, this is not the only time the US used war to re-bound out of a depression, WW1 aka the great war ramped up our economy and we were magically out of a depression and then shortly aft Dub Dub 1 we found ourselves in Dub Dub 2. the pattern is repeated over and over in our history. the cold war got us out of the stink in the mid 80's with the cold war, and gulf war in the 90s.
will the US find Hillary Clinton's Emails in China and now we go to war with china? Who Knows. (this was sarcasm)
I think we need a business savvy executive whether man or woman to be elected as president and get the country back on the rails. We need good monetary policy in place, we need to support small business here in the states to keep big businesses from becoming monopolies and drive prices down. we need more diversity in the economy. Because a more diverse economy = a cheaper place to live.
with all of that being said I forsee dollar to continue to get more and more expensive with the minimum being 12X.xx, median being in the 14X.xx and the maximum being somewhere around 15X.xx. I see interest rates forcing everyone's hand to show what their hiding. I see weak businesses going under, smart strong businesses staying afloat and will grow exponentially when the storm passes.
another potential thing is that the FED might think they over extended and might bump interest rates down or keep them the same for a brief time (this is a temporary fix), but I still see them raising rates to get back to 2%.
this is not financial advice, but my play book is to continue to sit on liquid cash and I would say a good indicator for me to jump back in is to see 4 or 5 maybe even 6 Fed meetings where the interest rates remain unchanged or begin to drop consecutively. So gather all your pennies, begin to live lean, and when the fed begins to keep interest rates unchanged begin to look at who is still walking around Wall St. and think about investing with them.
i do think if the US votes with their intelligence and not their emotions we can avoid all of what I wrote. and I truly do hope I am wrong!
@TayFx crazy to see man how two years ago we were called perma-bears and crazy and now we look like Wall St. prophets. LOL Hope all is well bud! HMU when you get a chance!