USD Index - Market is clueless. I am clueless too, but biased
Amazing indecision in DXY!
Weekly:
- Heikin-Ashi prints 3rd doji in the middle of the triangle, price stuck between Tenkan and Kijun, right below 100wma
- haOscillator seems failing to continue higher and stay above zero. This might be clear next week. If really turns down, that would be a bearish signal.
- EWO is still bearish.
- MACD? Can't read it, except that it's below zero level.
Daily:
- Heikin-Ashi prints a perfect inside candle with both upper and lower wicks --> Indecision. haDelta and haOscillator are mixed, not clear.
- Ichimoku is perfectly neutral. Price is perfectly in the thin Kumo, perfectly shaded by forward Kumo, between Tenkan and Kijun, right at flat 100wma. Perfect equilibrium!
- The triangle possibly will break next week!
- EWO is neutral too.
Will it be the presidential candidates' debate on Monday that triggers the move and breakout? Possible.
But I have two questions:
1. if todays macro numbers from Canada show an increasing chance of an economic slowdown (recession?) ahead, can the situation or outlook be much different in USA? I mean the two neighbour countries are pretty much in economic relation.
2. Since Brexit we know how sht polls can be. Can we trust US polls now? Is "Trump market risked" priced correctly? Is it priced at all???
I think if Trump gains some momentum, that will be very bearish for USD in general (DXY), bullish for Gold, and probably short term bearish for SPX too.
Anyway, I don't like to have my trades rely too much on my feelings and biases, so I am just small short now with tight stop. Let the charts give a cear signal and prove my view is right. Then I will build the position.
Weekly:
- Heikin-Ashi prints 3rd doji in the middle of the triangle, price stuck between Tenkan and Kijun, right below 100wma
- haOscillator seems failing to continue higher and stay above zero. This might be clear next week. If really turns down, that would be a bearish signal.
- EWO is still bearish.
- MACD? Can't read it, except that it's below zero level.
Daily:
- Heikin-Ashi prints a perfect inside candle with both upper and lower wicks --> Indecision. haDelta and haOscillator are mixed, not clear.
- Ichimoku is perfectly neutral. Price is perfectly in the thin Kumo, perfectly shaded by forward Kumo, between Tenkan and Kijun, right at flat 100wma. Perfect equilibrium!
- The triangle possibly will break next week!
- EWO is neutral too.
Will it be the presidential candidates' debate on Monday that triggers the move and breakout? Possible.
But I have two questions:
1. if todays macro numbers from Canada show an increasing chance of an economic slowdown (recession?) ahead, can the situation or outlook be much different in USA? I mean the two neighbour countries are pretty much in economic relation.
2. Since Brexit we know how sht polls can be. Can we trust US polls now? Is "Trump market risked" priced correctly? Is it priced at all???
I think if Trump gains some momentum, that will be very bearish for USD in general (DXY), bullish for Gold, and probably short term bearish for SPX too.
Anyway, I don't like to have my trades rely too much on my feelings and biases, so I am just small short now with tight stop. Let the charts give a cear signal and prove my view is right. Then I will build the position.
