US Dollar Index - 200 Simple Moving Average is the key

TVC:DXY   U.S. Dollar Currency Index
416 4 29
2016.09.01. Private idea post.
I repost it again as it's very important.
Back to the range picture. On the 24th of July we printed a false breakdown from the range. On the 3rd of May we also broke out. If we break out again this breakout will be an ultimate one when everyone realizes that the FED is not able to hike this year.
The first stop of this decline to lose finally the 200 SMA . As you can see this summer we were turning down from the 200 SMA many times. WE were able to break above this level only once but in a few days we lost this MA again.
I think this daily cycle rally is done here as we tagged the 200 SMA yesterday+ today and as we turn down again price will start to attack the blue trendline . As we break the trendline (94.7) the next stop is at the bottom of the range.
If we break down from the range price will free fall to 87.65 as there is no level to stop it.
If the dollar is falling gold             , oil             and stocks will rally again.

Beginning of June. Draghi can send it to 97 but that will be a perfect chance to go long on EUR and, specially, GBP
+1 Reply
I think the 94 area is in play, but can't imagine a scenario where EU or BOJ allows the USD to break below 90.
its good to have you back, missed your posts and informative style of trading, its gives multiple perspectives which is very helpful in making the right choices
Nice! I agree it will go down from here to support but until after the election i can't see dollar being too bearish so i think it will follow asymmetrical pattern until then and we get the breakout and volatility after election.
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