US Dollar Index To Fall - First Support at 84.50

The US Dollar Index has been rising strongly for most of this year, coincident with a major decline in broad based commodity indexes. However, we are currently seeing signs that the current price level may be the end of this strong run and lead to a major consolidation - likely coincident with a rally in overall commodities .

This chart shows the daily Dollar Index . There is a notable divergence on the momentum indicator between the October high and the current December high. The notes on the chart show that a typical price target after a divergence pattern would be for a retracement to the price low of the divergence pattern - in this case at about 84.50 which would be the next major horizontal price support on the chart.

Also while not shown on the chart the current Commitment of Traders data shows that the large speculators maxed there net long position at the October high as well, and the current run up from Oct to December has been on commercial buying which is opposite their normal pattern, and is a typical and classic sign of capitulation in a trend. This creates a compelling technical set-up for a sell out or short position. And the CoT data gives us confirmation from the "fundamentals" as evidenced in the extreme net short of the "smart money" commercial traders. The divergence or capitulation in commercial positions just gives us another aspect of market psychology suggesting that the trend is very close to an end.