Daily: is still , so the main trend will remain up, but this trend has gone too steep. We had a blow off candle two days ago, which was completely erased yesterday, despite we had rather bad numbers coming from Europe (and as we know EURUSD is the major component of the USD index).
Next few days canlde closes will be very important. Both the horizontal support, Tenkan Sen and the steepest stay together, while and Slow give a sell signal same time.
Corrective tgt is 84,25.
Also very important, that is quickly increasing. 20 days ATR (not shown on this chart) is up to 0,53 points from the lows of 0,18-0,27 points range seen during 2014. This means two things: when is picking up that quickly, can be an early signal for a sharp correction and sometimes the reversal of the trend. Second, you MUST adjust your trading sizes not to risk too much, as trading may become even more choppy!
4 Hrs: While you may feel on the it is already time to sell, and you may also feel you have missed it... look at this time frame. Is it a sell? No, not yet. Price down to the Kumo, but not yet even penetrated it. It is still just a consolidation with higher intraday . Chikou hit Price candles, Tenkan and Kijun flat (but e.g. not yet even gave a weak cross). Slow turning up from oversold. We may have to wait few more days, before the Kumo, 100 and the breaks same time. This is quite likely, given that for example USDJPY itself already did the same kind of break. Still even in the case of USDJPY cross, the lower low was still not yet in, so the Kumo breakout is not yet completely confirmed, and in case of USD Index, in very short term some pop up from Kumo is still possible.
The level is 85,45-55! Be a snake, a panther, a crocodile! Wait, focus, and strike in time! Still you can make a mistake even then, but the probability of success will be higher!
It is never the Price (entry or exit) what really matters, but it is always the Price Action and the signals. It is better to be late, then being too early more times.
Another point we shouldn't underestimate, is that a stronger USD can actually slow down US economy.
My thoughts on DXY are that we have just broken out of major multi-year channels, there will be a lot of residual strength in the index, especially given last weeks NFP
We are holding onto a strong daily trendline too. All these will break if we close and hold below 85.50-60 critical support. We are yet to break the 200ma on the hourly and just double-bottomed with a hammer-ish candle too!l Worth waiting and watching for now...