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AwesomeAvani
May 21, 2023 2:03 AM

DXY rising puts pressure on commodities  Long

U.S. Dollar Currency IndexTVC

Description

DXY on the daily chart hit a pivot top in early March and then 9 trading days ago a pivot

bottom and reversal. While trending down, a weakening dollar in general supports rising

commodity prices. The converse is likewise applicable. This week with increasing strength

of the dollar, upward price action of commodities may be challenged. The predictive algo

( Echo indicator by Luxalgo ) predicts the dollar strength rise will continue in the immediate

term future. The zero-lag MACD with its k/D lines rising and parallel is further confirmation.

I conclude that positive price action in oil, metals and agricultural commodities may face

dollar strength resistance while forex pairs containing the dollar may move in the dollar's

direction, absent conflicting or confounding factors otherwise.

Comments
chris7559
Ty
AwesomeAvani
@chris7559, You're welcome. I am expecting that the DXY may provide resistance to natural gas price action this week upcoming and so worth considering. I will only buy NG ( long) if I see DXY leveling out. ( ditto for metals and oil)
chris7559
@AwesomeAvani, As far as level out, do you mean stabilize and lower? I ask as I was thinking the higher DXY may give a lower price opportunity to buy--specifically to metals? I was thinking as well NG/oil may be a better buy when recession is acknowledged/economy slows? What are ur thoughts?
AwesomeAvani
@chris7559, supposedly recessions will slow down the demand for commodities and so a tendency to stagnate or lower prices.
OPEC+Russia do the simple thing they lower production to match lower demand to maintain price ( and profit) My take is that if dollar value is rising, the cost of commodities goes down (relatively). If dollar value is rising now I can imagine it will rise even more once the debt ceiling crisis is resolved. (for US to default would be catastrophoc and won't happen) So yes, I see dollar strength increasing as a drag on commodities priced in dollars accordingly I am relluctant to go all in unless dollar strength at least stagnates. From a different view, dollar strength rising adds synergy to any short plays on commodities.
( The risks of longing leveraged ETFs added to dollar strength dynaics makes me inclined to only make short trades a day or two at the most to avoid the decay of time in the leveraging and dollar strength movement.
chris7559
@AwesomeAvani Yes, I find it a little bit of an unsettling market for long term holds
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