Mrpips
Long

Monthly:The September candle is printing a bullish coloured Doji

INDEX:DXY   US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX
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Monthly: The September candle is printing a bullish colored Doji candle. The monthly chart also still shows a Bull Flag forming and, if it evolves, the target would be the 120 region. This has been calculated as follows: the height of the Flag pole of the Bull Flag is about 20 units (100 – 80 = 20). Extrapolating up 20 from the top of the Bull Flag , as per Bull Flag breakout technical theory, puts price up in the vicinity of the 120 area. This happens to be a key region for two reasons: Firstly, this is the 50% fib of the 1985-2008 major swing low move and, secondly, this is a previous S/R region with price action reacting here for over a two year period from mid-2000 to mid-2002. Thus, any break and hold back above 100 might be expected to target this region.
Comment: USDX: The US$ closed higher last week thanks to Friday’s upbeat US CPI data which seems to have renewed thoughts of a potential rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting. Price action broke up through 95.50 resistance and out from a triangle pattern that had constrained price action for the last 3 months.

Despite these continued gyrations around the 95.50 level, I still consider the US$ to be in no-man’s land though whilst it trades above 92.50 but below 100. I am waiting for a decisive breakout from this region to signal the next major directional move on the index as this choppy and range-bound price action has gone on for over 18 months. The levels to keep watching on the USDX are:

The 95.50 level.
The psychological 100 level above current price. This is the top of the longer-term trading range.
The 92.50 level below current price. This is the bottom of the longer-term trading range.
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