Firstly congratulations to those who took shorts on the previous idea (please see attached), very well done for clearing all targets on the handle.
We are rolling with the dollar holding 100.xx post FED - we need to keep in sync with the dollhair to make our next few months a lot easier and it will separate the men from the boys, having a crystal clear map will be invaluable.
OK so with that in mind, lets draw our maps moving forward;
As long as strong prints on the macro front continue, then as will Trump's Honeymoon be extended with tax cuts being tracked like a hawk by smart money. The initial knee jerk rally is over as markets have begun to demand more since Trumpcare fell through.. In any event, there are many doors still open, if not tax cuts then we have huge infrastructure and if all else fails there is always defence (or "attack").
What we now need to track is the pullback we find ourselves in... there is plenty of room either side here, what I aim to do by publishing this idea is to start the discussion and place for us here to track and put in context over the next Q and current leg.
Our options are as follows;
a. BUY above 102.xx -> TP 109.xx b. SELL below 98.xx -> TP 92.xx c. sidelined, waiting for things to become clearer d. No idea
@xrysto, will be better to keep the discussion here so that we can track in live
-> If passed then we will see capital flight towards US equities as SPX gets bid from all directions with large hands parking capital in the big corportations for obvious reasons... there is a lot of expectations on this front since DT started, so, if not passed we can expect a large correction on US equities.
-> the dollar will move in either direction as collateral, no more no less. The level to track here is 92.xx
xrysto
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@TheBanker, ah yes,the repatriation trade. i assumed it was a simple dollar long but as it get absorbed into corp portfolios first there are complexities involved. when the tax cut passes what will signal the dollar bull and/or bear movements in forex? i don't trade any other markets so i appreciate your insights on this.