The USD now dominates the market with huge weighting and the analysis of the future movement is essential, for all other tradable currencies and asset classes.
I provide the idea, with the consideration of rules of the "SUPPLY&DEMAND" theory, which focuses on the market influence of banks.
CURRENT STATUS: - the DXY is in a flag, which is normally a "Bullishes pattern". - the existing macroeconomic circumstance suggests a trend continuation.
From a daily perspective, we have broken out of an upward channel, which has not been tested at this point. - in order for the DXY to continue its rally, it would be healthy to test the channel for confirmation beforehand.
IDEA VIEW: - we are in the 15 min chart, which means we are looking at the market from a magnifying glass point of view. - the bullish flag could break out as in the theory and would thus allow a LONG position. - the idea refers to an early position entry to take the whole movement with less risk (fake out)
All RETAIL market participants assume a trend continuation, but also hope for a correction. A crossroads which provides a large amount of liquidity for the large speculators / banks.
STOP LEVEL: - Should the SL level (stop loss) set by me be broken, we can expect a correction after confirmation. (Should it not be a fake-out). - Drawn in the chart to follow up.
TAKE PROFIT: - there are large "SUPPLY" zones on the time levels T / W / M, which should bring about a reaction against. > 117-120
- moreover, we have relevant 1.618 FIBO targets > 114,864 > 115,437
- POIs are at > 117,019 > 117,936
Should you disagree, feel free to let me know - I am still in the learning process.
Thank you and happy trading!
Comment
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We are currently in the RE test of the flag, the facts have changed a bit.
- LONG entry at 0.786 (113.641 points) / 0.88 (113.506) FIBO level. - SL at 113,299 points
With this week and the upcoming FED policy regarding the USD, should be refrained from shorting the DXY for now. - the trade failed - new idea will follow!