Note the timing of oil's declines and the others. 2008 oil , dollar, and eusud each reacted in sync proportionally, with SPY the leader. In 2011 oil and SPY were in sync, but dollar and (obviously) eurusd reacted as laggards. This time oil, dollar (and of course eurusd) are in sync (almost) and SPY is the lagger. So each of these events are similar, but distinct in their reactionary correlations. I am not surprised. But, the one thing in common is volatility returns, and BIG V's, before each fall (or I suggest the third time will also comply). The one common theme I hear among the talking heads is whether market up or down, expect more volatility.
Comments
jangseohee
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Merry Xmas & Happy New Year,
it is a good analysis, but chart abit interwined, quite hard to see clearly :-)
claydoctor
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best wishes to you also. Yeh, hard to show the details I want in such a large time frame, sorry. The golden triangles are significant though, in that these are the only three by magnitude, and by far. I think they signal huge volatility, either way, usually down.
it is a good analysis, but chart abit interwined, quite hard to see clearly :-)