Careful Dollar Bulls

TVC:DXY   U.S. Dollar Currency Index
48 2 2
The DXY             has surprised everyone, breaking out to multi-year highs.

Bearish thesis:
Price is currently stretched 13% above the long term consensus of value (200WMA)
RSI and MACD show negative divergence
Should the dollar reverse and close below $100, a powerful bear trap would be elected. A topping or engulfing candle would attract attention
The smaller time frames imply a parabolic, unsustainable rally leading to a potential crash
Questionable macro-economic strength in USA

Bullish thesis:
Macro-economic instability in Euro-Zone and Emerging Markets
Potential end of the EU and fall of the Euro            
Powerful consolidation after 2014's rally could allow for further upside

COT commercials are long EUR and short DXY             . Bearish for DXY             .

EURUSD Appears to be be bouncing at the lowest-high

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