Let's try to look at it from pure technical perspective.
Daily: USD Indx had a nice rally from the lows at 79, and quite a correction from the top at 81. What do the indicators show now? Ichimoku components: Price is at the Kumo, two days ago the bottom of teh cloud provided a good support. Tenkan below Kijun, but bothe lines are above the Kumo. Chikou Span is below price and in the Kumo. This is a hard situation, but in general until the Price doesn't break below the Kumo, we can not consider it as bearish. Actually it has become neutral now after the corrective counter wave. Meanwhile Slow Stoch became oversold, and yesterday gave a buy signal, MACD may slowly turn up again. DMI is neutral/bearish, but can easily give a bullish cross.
As I marked on the chart, it is very similar to the Kumo retest and reversal that happened in early April on the other side. From these levels I give a bigger chance for a spike up, then for a further dip. What we have to look for now is the lower, 4 Hrs time frame. In case price can not print a lower low there, which also means price would not break below the Kumo on daily chart, then Bulls may get back in control. The important levels are clear: lower suppoprt is 79,75. Upper resistances are 80,21 / 80,39.
My recommendation is to wait for one more dip within current daily Kumo, watch if price prints a lower low on 4 Hrs, and if not, then start to build long positions in smaller clips. Later if we see a clear bullish break on 4 Hrs (which will be likely supported by daily technicals too by then), size up the longs.
p.s.: Today is going to be important, since the EURUSD is the major component within USD Indx, and again there is a good chance Draghi will try to talk EURUSD lower somehow.
Comments
A-shot
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More stock analysis of such please :) And you check DMI? You find it better than RSI or CCI? I find using DMI separately from those a bit more false leading as it tends to wave here and there too much. But with Ichimoku should be give better signals
Kumowizard
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I find DMI very useful as an additional indicator to Ichimoku. Espec on 4 Hrs time frame.
Regarding stocks I am happy to publish more if you want, but as some guys already know I am quite bearish biased there :-). And stocks can not go anywhere else just up up and up, right? ;-)
I have a friend, who had a funny theory a few years ago: Interest rates will go to zero, volatility will go to zero, thus stock and stock index prices will fly to infinity and beyond :-D. Will he be right?
A-shot
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Sweden had it interest rate lowered 60% today....Still, i am not looking for bullish charts only, i am looking for an idea that is supported by good grounds. If i disagree, i won't take it - if i find it correct, i will take it in account. And best of all - if your predictions are successful, none can say you were wrong.