After a dovish pivot from the ECB, the Fed must act rather than talk in order to change the course of the dollar's trend. There is a 70.2% probability of a rate cut in December priced in yet Powell expects to hike 25bps in 2020.
rate cut Dec 2019? . Larry Kudlow is pounding the table , to cut now. like within the next month... we shall see. What is real odd, to me, is that just 4 months ago the fed was saying we forecast 3 to 4 rate increases.. now we are 3 full months forward and they slam on the brakes,, Now if they missed something last December about future rate increases,, What would make me think they can forecast 12 months forward? Rather insane if you ask me,,,, Keep up the great work buddy.. Be safe and happy trading..
UnknownUnicorn266486
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@qsidewater, the Fed won't surprise the market, I wouldn't expect a cut unless the probability is greater than 60% heading into the meeting irrespective of the rhetoric. I would also say that despite the Fed suggesting they wanted 3 to 4 hikes there was a lot of erosion beneath the markets to suggest that we were likely to see a Fed put. But I totally agree, the Fed is not good forecasters and we should be vigilant with their guidance.