Updating my TVC:DXY predictions: 1. Everything hinges on carry trade with Japan 2. Japan is raising rates until they resubmit to negative interest rates this summer 3. The USDJPY will plummet until summer, this will cause the dollar to go down which increases inflation in the USA and deflation everywhere else due to the dollar being a reserve currency. 4. I believe the FED will cause inflation to go higher kicking the can down the street 5. After this summer the dollar will explode to over 140+ killing all other currencies as they print to escape deflationary depression. 6. The dollar will finally explode making way for CBDC's 7. Gold, Bitcoin, Rupee will be my final three picks for the end of 2030 for best assets and currencies. Of course you'll want a farm and freeze dried food for the coming collapse.
A dynamic has changed now, the market and the FED are disconnected. Powell will probably come out and say that he has to check inflation metrics before cutting, and the market already is pricing in 3 rate cuts this year, even though the odds are plummeting and now the first rate cut is being pushed out to September. I predict that the market will see higher volatility pushing up gold and silver and other inflation barometers - to force the FED's hand. Unfortunately the FED will be forced to raise rates further when inflation's second rally gets going. I don't see volatility tamping down just because Powell won't cut rates fast enough - and until the FED raises rates, volatility will be hard to control...
Comment
⋅
J Powell angered the markets, so now inflation is full steam ahead. The dollar just puked and is in a TTM squeeze so this should be a very powerful move down.
Samantha LaDuc is impressive when it comes to seeing patterns. She forecasts yields rising in Q4 - which means the dollar is rising - which means the FED is hiking because inflation has gotten out of control (hence precious metals doing their thing).
Is great weekend reading that covers all the major players and their potential chess moves. It weighs possible moves and gives you a clear outlook of the market dynamics right now.
Will Korea and Japan's Plaza Accord spur a Chinese devaluation? Yes if they actually do it. It won't work for long as the dollar will come roaring back as everyone defaults from hyperinflation. Ultimately I see 250 for the Yen, the Yuan will be 8-10 by the end of the year. This means that the dollar will lose ground before skyrocketing - which'll boost metals and miners to ATH's. But when the dollar comes back because of some deflationary catalyst and dollar shortage, risk assets will lose value cause no one will have enough dollars.
Comment
⋅
The BOJ is taking longer than I expected to act, which is allowing the dollar to go higher, I still see a snap happening that will propel the dollar down before it's big climax that destroys the system. Here's the new count for the dollar
People might be bullish on the micro. Trend, but in the macros obvious there is a huge heading shoulders ready for crash
tradersingh911
⋅
Nice! 😊
HoangDuy173
⋅
Amazing! 🤩
Invisibie
⋅
If the BOJ sells treasuries to strengthen yen, they will export deflation causing every other CB to do the same. I envision US10y going higher during this time while risk sells off.
Invisibie
⋅
Gold bitcoin and rupee to hold until 2030?
EmptyEternity
⋅
@Invisibie, I see pms having a pop up before something breaks (or gets blamed on) for a deflationary impulse that implodes the dollar leading to CBDC's. Considering India is leading the charge for digitalization, it's tough to buy rupees on a physical level and hope that they appreciate to the level that they will be at, at the close of the decade - they will have outlawed the rest of cash and moved to a cbdc. Perhaps a hidden strength of the currency will be the pervasiveness of ownership of gold, that allows a ipsofacto decentralization/barter system that counters excess. Ultimately pm's will blast off, but at that point it'll be a depression unless you're in a smart city giving up all your freedom and living on cbdc's. Hence why physical commodities will lead after the dollar implodes when it hits 140-160+.