againstthegrain

DXY Wave Couting "by the book"

INDEX:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
Here is my two cents on a possible reversal level for DXY             . I am carrying my wave-counting going “by the book” (i.e. following the original/classic Elliott Wave Principle).
1) wave 2 retraces 0.618 times wave 1
2) there is a 3rd wave extension
3) wave 3 extension ends at 4.236 fibo
4) wave 4 retraces 0.236 times wave 3
5) wave 5, when 3 is extended, is targeted at 0.618 times the difference between start of wave 1 and end of wave 3

In addition:
1) there is a bearish divergence on RSI and MACD (as emphasized by other users)
2) stoch/DMI appears to be overbought (also observed by other users)
3) it is true that Ichimoku signals (and ADX) are still showing bulls in control. It naturally suggests we may see some upward movements until the fibo extension target for wave 5 is completed.
4) at this point in time is not possible to say whether it will be a major reversal or a simple correction

Some take-ways:
1) 95.50 is a possible level for a reversal and it may be nice target for a mid-term strategy
2) if channeling is correct we may see the 95.50’s level in some 13 days, but this is not a golden rule
3) for those trading short-term, a more deep analysis is need to take advantages on ups and downs that may happen along the road
againstthegrain
2 years ago
Pls note the channeling is wrong above. I am a new user and don't know how to republish/correct my chart above. For correct channel pls draw a trend line from 10/03/2014 high to today's high and then parallel line on wave 4.
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