againstthegrain

DXY Wave Couting "by the book"

INDEX:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
Here is my two cents on a possible reversal level for DXY             . I am carrying my wave-counting going “by the book” (i.e. following the original/classic Elliott Wave Principle).
1) wave 2 retraces 0.618 times wave 1
2) there is a 3rd wave extension
3) wave 3 extension ends at 4.236 fibo
4) wave 4 retraces 0.236 times wave 3
5) wave 5, when 3 is extended, is targeted at 0.618 times the difference between start of wave 1 and end of wave 3

In addition:
1) there is a bearish divergence on RSI and MACD (as emphasized by other users)
2) stoch/DMI appears to be overbought (also observed by other users)
3) it is true that Ichimoku signals (and ADX ) are still showing bulls in control. It naturally suggests we may see some upward movements until the fibo extension target for wave 5 is completed.
4) at this point in time is not possible to say whether it will be a major reversal or a simple correction

Some take-ways:
1) 95.50 is a possible level for a reversal and it may be nice target for a mid-term strategy
2) if channeling is correct we may see the 95.50’s level in some 13 days, but this is not a golden rule
3) for those trading short-term, a more deep analysis is need to take advantages on ups and downs that may happen along the road
Pls note the channeling is wrong above. I am a new user and don't know how to republish/correct my chart above. For correct channel pls draw a trend line from 10/03/2014 high to today's high and then parallel line on wave 4.
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