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Sanzhar_m
Aug 11, 2022 4:23 AM

Decisive USD level affecting all financial markets 

DXY*1000000000000/USM2TVC

Description

The graph: TVC:DXY*1000000000000/ECONOMICS:USM2 (without *10000... scales equal to 0 )

DXY - the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies.

DXY is a key economic and trading value. It's changes impact/reflect values of stocks, commodities, cryptocurrencies and other financial instruments.

M2 (US money supply '2') is closely watched as an indicator of money supply and future inflation, and as a target of central bank monetary policy.

Technical Inference
Technical analysis displays strong existing resistance+support lines formed by the blue parallel channel. Numerous touching/turning points in major and minor lines. Considering strong correlation with resistance and support lines, improvement in analysis and trading accuracy may be achieved.

DXY/Money Supply 2 had hit its 3rd peak recently. I believe we will see some upside movement in the short-term, with fierce bearish reversal incoming in the long-term, likely at the 1.414(5.277) Fib resistance retest. it


Especially since 2002, CCs (correlation coefficients) between DXY/Money Supply and IXIC, SPX, Gold have signified negatively strong correlations.


For equities and crypto markets:
- short-term bearish movement
- long-term bullish

For Commodities:
- I believe further QE (quantitative easing), increasing the money supply will decrease the US dollars value. Thereby, a weaker dollar means commodities are less expensive in other currencies – this increases demand, and therefore prices for US.


Indicators



Weekly RSI hit above 70, monthly Macd moving towards its mean.

Further resources:



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