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AbdorhmanThi
Dec 17, 2016 5:53 AM

DXY: USD Long Long

U.S. Dollar Currency IndexTVC

Description

The Dollar has made new highs and with 2017 being a potential year for more rate hikes there are really no sign to not long the Dollar. I believe the dollar will make its way to test the trendline on the weekyl/monthly time frame. I would wait for a pull back into previous resistance/now support to enter long.
Comments
kunsan
Most people seem to be counting the move upwards from 72 as some sort of five wave thing. However an alternative interpretation is that DXY is in the middle of a very large ABC rally. The move from 72 to 100 can be seen an 'A, triangle B, C, making the first three wave part of a larger ABC, making the rise to 100 as wave 'A'. The sideways consolidation between 90-100 can be interpreted as wave B of the bigger pattern. If so, then DXY might now be trying to rise in wave C. Wave C can be 0.618 of A or equal to wave A, which gives a minimum target of 108 and a more likely target of 120. Interesting that 120 will be a retest of the 2001/2 high.
kunsan
Notice that the RSI reading at 100 was the highest point from the 72 low, suggesting that higher highs with divergence will be required. I suspect that the rise in 'C' from 91 to either 108 or 120 will take the form of a rising diagonal which will help keep the RSI reading below the earlier peak.
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