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AlphaBravoCharlie77
Sep 29, 2021 6:43 AM

Update on DXY 

U.S. Dollar Currency IndexTVC

Description

* As expected, DXY has trended up in the short-term.
* However, it will be meeting heavy resistance by ¬11 Oct'21.
* BTCUSDT has an inverse relationship with DXY.
* Thus if DXY trends downwards, that might signal the end of the mid-cycle consolidation for BTCUSDT.

Comment

* It is earlier than what I expected, but DXY indeed bounced off the resistance level we drew.
* Let's see if we can break throgh the resistance levels at 92.450 and 89.212.

Comment

To those with kids, do not disparage your kids when you see them "just drawing lines". These imaginary lines on the chart have brought me much profits!

Comment

* It's still wait-and-see time. And what better to do than to upskill oneself?

* Here are two articles that reveal how much we do not understand about macroeconomics.
nytimes.com/2021/10/01/upshot/inflation-economy-analysis.html
federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2021062pap.pdf

* Keep an open mind. Be flexible. Form hypotheses, then test them brutally and relentlessly. Pride is for losers. Winners go home and f*ck the prom queen.
quickmeme.com/img/10/10aa903e407347be3415b59227b9eb7ff2e7316c3b455719500fe64c39376248.jpg

Comment

* Not enough people are looking at this chart.
* As expected, DXY is trending downwards this week (debt ceiling, approval of 2HFY21 budget plans).
* This will provide much strength to BTCUSDT.
* However, there is great resistance at the previous BTCUSDT ATH, and it will probably be range bound for some time.
* This will be good for alts.
Comments
d-MR96nBa
Foresee the Bearish Scenario playing out on this one Kev. 📉🖼️
AlphaBravoCharlie77
@d-MR96nBa, probably one last hurrah before the shitstorm in 2023. Presenting George Tritch's strategy that has a 92% hit rate:

forum.hurstcycles.com/uploads/db9209/original/2X/3/34243ceeb444c19b52778382a64f8d82c64ae149.jpeg
d-MR96nBa
Your updates made me take a second look at your levels..
79.914 is inevitable . People will believe the Dollar is actually
crashing at that point.. When in fact it's a corrective within
the greater relative Dollar Bull.
AlphaBravoCharlie77
@d-MR96nBa, we have been in a huge descending parallel channel since 1985. I agree that we will probably go below 85.05, bounce off support, and enter the top half of the channel as we enter recession and deflation.

The things we see when we zoom out:)

d-MR96nBa
@kevinaugustinechong, One last dump before the pump.
Eventually I expect the DXY to break out of the downtrend
channel. The US Dollar being the less shitty of all the basket.
AlphaBravoCharlie77
@d-MR96nBa, it seems that we again agree on similar levels (~79.914). I agree that DXY may break out of the channel. But I do hope that I would have accumulated enough capital before then to retire as a gentleman woodworker. The macroeconomic conditions that might push DXY to (maybe?) 111.4 would be quite horrendous to the average person.
d-MR96nBa
@kevinaugustinechong, You could call the Dside target a round 80 though the overshoot is guaranteed.
There is also an uptrend line you can draw from the 2008-2009 Lows that would intercept 80 sometime in the future.
The day will come when the DXY hits the 111.40 lvl you speak of, but not not for some time yet.
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